1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:29,000 You're listening to the MTG Sold Podcast Editorial Edition. 2 00:00:29,000 --> 00:00:35,000 Magic revenue grew 32% and passed 500 million in a quarter for the first time. 3 00:00:35,000 --> 00:00:40,000 Marvel Superheroes also became the biggest day one release in the history of the game. 4 00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:46,000 By the time Hasbro started taking questions, those numbers had already swallowed most of the coverage. 5 00:00:46,000 --> 00:00:55,000 The useful part came when management started talking about supply. Hasbro spent part of 2025 chasing demand after products were already on sale. 6 00:00:55,000 --> 00:01:04,000 This year it printed more upfront, sent larger allocations into distribution and gave Marvel more launch inventory than Final Fantasy. 7 00:01:04,000 --> 00:01:10,000 So Marvel's record was partly a demand story. It was also a capacity story. 8 00:01:10,000 --> 00:01:15,000 Hasbro has decided it would rather risk printing too much than miss another hot launch. 9 00:01:15,000 --> 00:01:19,000 Marvel absorbed that bet without leaving a visible pile of inventory behind. 10 00:01:19,000 --> 00:01:31,000 The next ordinary magic set may not. As to about printing capacity, management said it spent part of 2025 chasing demand and left some demand on the table for certain releases. 11 00:01:31,000 --> 00:01:40,000 Hasbro did not identify the products, but Final Fantasy is a reasonable guess because management later compared its launch allocation directly with Marvel's. 12 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:48,000 But the transcript never confirms it. The firm claim is narrower. Hasbro believes it under-supplied part of the 2025 schedule. 13 00:01:48,000 --> 00:01:55,000 Its response for 2026 was to put more product into the market before release. 14 00:01:55,000 --> 00:02:00,000 Initial print runs are larger, so are the first allocation sent into distribution. 15 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:09,000 Reprints still take longer than Hasbro wants, but larger opening runs reduce how much the company has to depend on them during the launch window. 16 00:02:09,000 --> 00:02:18,000 The goal is to have enough product available while demand is at its highest instead of delivering more boxes after stores have already sold through. 17 00:02:18,000 --> 00:02:24,000 Hasbro is also adding print capacity with his partners for 2027 and 2028. 18 00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:29,000 This goes beyond Marvel or one strong quarter. There is a basic trade-off here. 19 00:02:29,000 --> 00:02:35,000 A cautious print run protects against unsold inventory. When the set overperforms, stores run out. 20 00:02:35,000 --> 00:02:40,000 Prices jump and Hasbro loses sales while everyone waits for another wave. 21 00:02:40,000 --> 00:02:50,000 A larger print run captures more of that early demand. It also puts more product into distributors and stores before Hasbro knows exactly how strong the release will be. 22 00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:58,000 Hasbro spent 2025 dealing with the first problem. It's now taking on more of the second. 23 00:02:58,000 --> 00:03:08,000 Marvel made that decision look easy. The set received a large allocation to Final Fantasy, yet Hasbro said inventory stayed at reasonable levels. 24 00:03:08,000 --> 00:03:14,000 Selther was brisk and channel partners continued ordering. The extra product moved. 25 00:03:14,000 --> 00:03:25,000 That helps explain how Marvel set the record. Demand was enormous, but Hasbro also gave stores enough inventory to convert more of that demand into sales. 26 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:31,000 A product cannot break a launch record if nobody can restock it. 27 00:03:31,000 --> 00:03:35,000 Marvel does not prove the same approach will work across the release calendar though. 28 00:03:35,000 --> 00:03:49,000 It was backed by one of the largest entertainment properties in the world, reach customers outside of the usual magic audience, and received support from retailers that do not normally move much organized play product. 29 00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:54,000 The real pressure appears when Hasbro gives an ordinary set the same treatment. 30 00:03:54,000 --> 00:04:01,000 If it guesses low, the old pattern returns, stores sells out, and prices rise while the company waits for more product. 31 00:04:01,000 --> 00:04:14,000 If it guesses high, the launch may still look healthy. The boxes arrive, shelves stay full, the reorder slow, seller start cutting prices, and the next release lands before the previous one has cleared. 32 00:04:14,000 --> 00:04:20,000 That is a quieter failure than a sellout. It also lasts longer. 33 00:04:20,000 --> 00:04:29,000 A larger opening allocation changes, which signals matter. Launch week shortages become less useful when Hasbro is deliberately trying to prevent them. 34 00:04:29,000 --> 00:04:34,000 An early price spike may reflect a tight allocation rather than durable demand. 35 00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:42,000 Record, first day revenue, also needs context when the company shipped more product than it did for the previous record holder. 36 00:04:42,000 --> 00:04:45,000 The better evidence comes after the opening rush. 37 00:04:45,000 --> 00:04:53,000 How much list of supply remains after 30 days? Does it continue following or begin building as more inventory reaches sellers? 38 00:04:53,000 --> 00:04:59,000 Are stores placing new orders because they sold through or are they discounting boxes from the first shipment? 39 00:04:59,000 --> 00:05:09,000 Price behavior matters too. A product that holds its price through several restocks is telling us something different from one that peaks during release weekend and weakens as soon as supply arrives. 40 00:05:09,000 --> 00:05:21,000 Marble and Final Fantasy give MTG sold a useful comparison. Marble began with more inventory. Final Fantasy launched under Tudder Supply and continued receiving orders well after release. 41 00:05:21,000 --> 00:05:28,000 They reach the market under different conditions, which makes a simple comparison of day one revenue nearly useless. 42 00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:35,000 Our own data gives us an early answer, and it doesn't really fit the clean version, but it is incomplete. 43 00:05:35,000 --> 00:05:46,000 Through Marble's first 25 days, its playbooster supply never really came down. List of boxes held between 900 and 1300, and the price drifted around 122 to 114. 44 00:05:46,000 --> 00:05:54,000 Final Fantasy launched the other way. Supply was tighter, and the box price held near or above its 210 starting point. 45 00:05:54,000 --> 00:06:04,000 So the early read leads to a pure demand story. Marble's price softened while it shelves stayed full. That is the slower kind of a problem, not a sellout. 46 00:06:04,000 --> 00:06:14,000 I would not lean on that yet though. Marble is brown 25 days old, less than a month, there is no 30, 90, or 100 day comparison to make against Final Fantasy's full year. 47 00:06:14,000 --> 00:06:21,000 Its follow-up products have barely started selling, and we never recorded Final Fantasy's launch week in inventory ourselves. 48 00:06:21,000 --> 00:06:27,000 So its out of the chart is estimated from public reporting and Hasbro's own note that the set kept getting reorders. 49 00:06:27,000 --> 00:06:38,000 Marble won opening day, that does not settle the lifetime comparison. Another answer during the call changed how I think about Magic's release schedule. 50 00:06:38,000 --> 00:06:49,000 Management said sets vary in skew count and card count and complexity. Marble was described as a commercially comparable with Lord of the Rings in Final Fantasy. 51 00:06:49,000 --> 00:06:56,000 The Hobbit will still be a large set, but Hasbro expects it to be smaller because it has fewer cards and fewer products. 52 00:06:56,000 --> 00:07:01,000 Those differences according to management track closely with sales potential. 53 00:07:01,000 --> 00:07:09,000 Most discussions about release fatigue start by counting sets. Six releases sound manageable, seven sounds excessive. 54 00:07:09,000 --> 00:07:16,000 Each date on the calendar is treated as one equal unit. The products are nowhere close to equal. 55 00:07:16,000 --> 00:07:25,000 One set might include multiple booster configurations for Commanderdex, Premium Bundles, Stereolyze cards, and several rounds of follow-up products. 56 00:07:25,000 --> 00:07:35,000 Another may have fewer cards in a much narrow lineup, both count as one release. They do not create the same amount of inventory. 57 00:07:35,000 --> 00:07:42,000 They do not create the same revenue opportunity for Hasbro, and they do not ask the same amount of tension or money from players. 58 00:07:42,000 --> 00:07:48,000 I think release masks gets closer to what people are trying to describe. 59 00:07:48,000 --> 00:07:58,000 Set count tells us how many dates appear in the calendar, release masks, asks us how much product is attached to those dates. 60 00:07:58,000 --> 00:08:09,000 There probably is not one perfect formula for it. Card count would matter, so with a number of Commanderdex, booster types, premium, treatments, price points, and later products connected to the set. 61 00:08:09,000 --> 00:08:19,000 The point is not to manufacture a precise score, it is to stop pretending that a small release and a marble size release plays the same weight on the market. 62 00:08:19,000 --> 00:08:24,000 That distinction matters for 2020/27. 63 00:08:24,000 --> 00:08:33,000 Hasbro currently plans six sets divided between three universe beyond releases and three first party match releases. 64 00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:42,000 It described 2026 as roughly seven sets, although the timing of one release makes the light for light comparison closer to six and a half. 65 00:08:42,000 --> 00:08:49,000 Management also said first party magic should represent a larger share next year. 66 00:08:49,000 --> 00:08:57,000 A simple count makes the schedule look flat to slightly lighter. That could be true. We do not know enough yet. 67 00:08:57,000 --> 00:09:06,000 Six large releases can contain more cards, more products, and more total spending opportunities than seven smaller releases. 68 00:09:06,000 --> 00:09:14,000 Hasbro can also increase their first party revenue without adding another universe beyond set if those first party releases carry more product. 69 00:09:14,000 --> 00:09:18,000 This matters outside an earnings model. 70 00:09:18,000 --> 00:09:30,000 Players do not become exhausted because another date appeared on the calendar, they become exhausted by the cards they're expected to learn, the products they have to evaluate, and the amount of money required to keep up. 71 00:09:30,000 --> 00:09:40,000 If the number of releases falls while the amount attached to each one grows, the pressure has not necessarily eased. 72 00:09:40,000 --> 00:09:50,000 Hasbro has said that the magic player base is growing, new players are entering, laps players are returning, and established players remain engaged. 73 00:09:50,000 --> 00:10:02,000 Distribution is also expanding at a double digit rate, roughly in line with revenue. Hasbro added Wizards played network accounts while growing its presence in mass retail. 74 00:10:02,000 --> 00:10:06,000 The call did not show how much of the quarter came from each source. 75 00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:18,000 Marvel offers a clearer view of the distribution side. Management said it performed especially well with new customers and in places that did not traditionally sell much organized play magic. 76 00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:22,000 Disney theme parks in GameStop were the examples. 77 00:10:22,000 --> 00:10:30,000 A pack sold at a Disney park counts the same as a pack sold at a local game store when Hasbro reports revenue. 78 00:10:30,000 --> 00:10:38,000 The buyers may behave very differently afterward. For one customer, Marvel may be the first step into magic. 79 00:10:38,000 --> 00:10:44,000 For another, it's a Spider-Man souvenir that happens to contain trading cards. 80 00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:51,000 Both are successful sales. Only one is likely to create demand for the next first party set. 81 00:10:51,000 --> 00:11:01,000 The follow-through comes in two stages. The Hobbit will test whether customers acquired through Marvel will follow Hasbro into another licensed property. 82 00:11:01,000 --> 00:11:07,000 That would show cross-IP retention. They came for one franchise and stayed for another. 83 00:11:07,000 --> 00:11:16,000 A first party magic release is the tougher test. Buying that product would mean the customer stayed after the familiar licensed characters were gone. 84 00:11:16,000 --> 00:11:25,000 That's when a Marvel customer begins to look like a magic customer. Someone who buys only Marvel cards is still valuable to Hasbro. 85 00:11:25,000 --> 00:11:34,000 The company reached a person who may never have bought magic otherwise. But that sale alone does not prove the core bear place becomes deeper. 86 00:11:34,000 --> 00:11:43,000 Hasbro did not provide retention figures, spending by the customer type, or breakdown between growth from new stores and growth inside existing accounts. 87 00:11:43,000 --> 00:11:55,000 It says the player base is expanding and that may be correct, but the quarter does not tell us how much of that growth will remain after Marvel. 88 00:11:55,000 --> 00:12:00,000 Hasbro expects magic revenue to decline by a low single digit percentage in the fourth quarter. 89 00:12:00,000 --> 00:12:07,000 Management also said that roughly 40 million of that change comes from moving an earlier set by a few weeks. 90 00:12:07,000 --> 00:12:20,000 Laurelman launched in late January 2026, allowing some of its revenue to land in the previous quarter. The comparable 2027 release is scheduled for February, which moves those sales in a Q1. 91 00:12:20,000 --> 00:12:26,000 Demand does not have to change for the quarterly comparison to move by 40 million. 92 00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:36,000 That makes individual magic quarters less clean than they appear. A week quarter can contain healthy demand if the release calendar moved against it. 93 00:12:36,000 --> 00:12:41,000 A strong quarter can benefit from having an extra launch inside the reporting period. 94 00:12:41,000 --> 00:12:46,000 The dates need to be normalized before the growth rate says much about the underlying market. 95 00:12:46,000 --> 00:12:54,000 The call also included a distribution breakdown of roughly 70% hobby, 20% mass, and 10% international. 96 00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:58,000 I would be cautious with that split. 97 00:12:58,000 --> 00:13:07,000 Hobby and mass are channels. International is a geography. An international sale can also take place through a hobby store or mass retailer. 98 00:13:07,000 --> 00:13:12,000 So the three categories do not appear to be mutually exclusive in the same way. 99 00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:21,000 The broad shape is still useful. Hobby remains the largest part of magic distribution, while mass and retail and international sales are growing. 100 00:13:21,000 --> 00:13:30,000 The precise three-way breakdown needs a better definition before it should be treated as a clean segmentation of the business. 101 00:13:30,000 --> 00:13:36,000 The 500 million figure is accurate. It just tells us less than the details buried later in the call. 102 00:13:36,000 --> 00:13:41,000 Hasbro has increased initial supply because shortages cost its sales in 2025. 103 00:13:41,000 --> 00:13:49,000 Marble absorbed the additional inventory, but Marble was about as favorable as a test as Hasbro could have ever chosen. 104 00:13:49,000 --> 00:14:01,000 The next ordinary release will be more revealing. If larger opening runs continue selling through without damaging prices, Hasbro may have found a better balance between scarcity and availability. 105 00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:07,000 If inventory begins sticking around, the company will have traded one visible problem for a slower one. 106 00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:12,000 The same applies to Marble's new customers. Their first purchase produced the record. 107 00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:18,000 Their second purchase will tell us whether they fall of Marble, universes beyond, or magic itself. 108 00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:25,000 The record is already on the books. The next few releases will tell us what kind of record it was. 109 00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:30,000 Find the full article with graphs on mgtsold.com. Thanks for listening.