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Before we get into it, a quick note for anyone building tools in the Magic Space.

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MTG Sold collects a pretty large amount of sales and supply data, and I make that data set available for free to people who actually want to build something with it.

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That includes sales volume, supply data, and the underlying historical data I use for a lot of the analysis on the show.

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I don't really advertise it. The documentation is just sitting there at MTG Sold.com/docs. And that's intentional.

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If you make it that far, read through it, and have an idea, and want to access the data, shoot me an email at contact@mgtsold.com.

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There's no API subscription I'm trying to sell you. If you're building something useful, and the MTG Sold data can help, I'm generally happy to provide it.

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That's mgtsold.com/docs.com. Before we get started, a quick word from today's sponsor, me.

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I built MTGdeck.build, a free machine learning deck builder that creates format legal decks using only the cards you already own.

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It's useful for newer players trying to build their first decks, long-term players looking to do something with their bulk, and sellers putting together playable budget decks.

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It supports commander, popper, legacy, brawl, and several other formats.

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You can try it for free at MTGdeck.build. Again, MTGdeck.build.

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You're listening to the MTG Sold Weekly Podcast. This is the week of August 3rd through August 9th, 2026.

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[Music]

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64% of TCG players sealed revenue this week came from the Hobbit. That share grew again about 830 grand out of a $1.3 million week, while everything outside the set shrank.

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The top line came out flat at 10% because the Hobbit's growth offset everything else almost exactly.

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And all of that Hobbit money moved through a narrow channel until release day on August 14th.

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Remember, only brick and mortar stores can list on TCG player until then, so every Hobbit price you hear this week is a store price.

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The store shelves emptied anyway, volume climbed all week towards the pre-release events, peaking on the 7th at about 1,270 units and 240 grand in sales.

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The playbues of display sold over 1,200 boxes on its own, five times at standing inventory and its listings fell 30% in a week where the number of stores carrying it grew about 16%.

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Buyers cleared product faster than new stores can bring it in and the price followed up about 9% to just under 200.

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The gift bundle is the extreme case down to about 30 listings across 7 sellers and it printed the biggest gain in the set, 17.5%.

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I don't put too much weight on that number, 7 sellers can produce almost any price.

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The draft night kit lost 62% of its listings, the steepest drop in the set. The small box stuff is emptying first.

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The set didn't move in one piece though, every booster box, bundle and draft kit gained going into the weekend and the two scene boxes fell 18% on cracked the plates and about 14 on treasures of smog.

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That looks like buyers cooling until you check the volume. Both kept selling right through the drop while seller counts exploded up nearly 50% on one and more than double on the other.

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My read is a price war among the stores, on the one skew where you can read the sticker price right off the box and the margin is thinnest.

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Once the gate opens the crowd on those two only gets bigger.

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The pre-release pack ran its usual event weekend pattern, volume from about 220 units to nearly 800.

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Price down 16% under the flood. The collector booster display is the one I towed you to hold loosely after last week's dip.

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It came back at about 850 bucks, up 7% on 500 boxes, nearly 430 grand. With its seller count up about 40% and the box still clearing 3 and a half times its shelf.

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I read that dip as sellers meeting the hype and this week's tape supports it.

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Manipule did about 184% of it hobbit and nothing in its mover list traded more than 21 units so direction only.

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Still, the hobbit play display there rose 7% while its supply drained about 60% and its collector sibling rose 8% while listings nearly doubled.

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Stores there are treating the two displays differently going into release.

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Marvel's second restock wave kept landing. The jump starts display shelf went from about 260 listings to nearly 580 in one week and its price gave up almost 12%.

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A third straight weekly decline. The play booster display grew from about 800 listings to over 900, the deepest pile on my board for a second week.

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The Marvel scene boxes are part of that same pile up. Visions unleashed falling 16% against a 400 listing shelf that nobody's clearing.

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And the collectors addition display drained another 20% while all of that landed around it. If you're holding standard tiered Marvel, my position hasn't moved since last week.

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The waves are still arriving and I'm not calling the bottom while they are.

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The old box drained broke. You'll remember I said a third consecutive week of dusk morn, foundations, and friends shedding listings would make it a real signal.

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Instead, dusk morn supply came up about 28%. Foundations 21. Tark here bounced 2. And Star Trek last week's Stranges entry on that list went flat while its seller pools grew 25 to 30%.

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The Lord of the Rings, Food and Fellowship Deck, another shelf that had been shrinking rebuilt about 35%.

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My best guess, sellers who bought these boxes cheap during the drain are unloading into the higher prices the drain itself created. Either that or it was never one pattern to begin with.

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The holdout is the edge of Eternity's Commander Deck set of 2, down another 38% of its shelf with its prices up about 6%.

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If it drains again next week while its cohort sits restocked, I'll write it up on its own. The only other non-habit gainer of any size was the Ninja Turtles bundle, up almost 12% on 23 units across a deep shelf.

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Direction and nothing more. The foundation started collection drifted down 13% on light volume with nothing behind it that I can find.

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A Bloomberg pre-con animated army added about 9% as its shelf shrank. Both Strixhaven items keep draining off to the side. The Prismari Commander Deck losing the third of its shelf while its sales dried up alongside an April release thinning out.

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Outside the Hobbit, the tightest shelf on the whole board was the Team-Rour pre-con, turning over about 90% of a 50 listing pile.

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In the Argeography Birds I view, the seller map changed hands for the first time in this data set. California overtook Washington as the top supply state, mostly because the Seattle's share have.

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Next week, everything lands on the same day. The 14th is release, single pricing, and the moment individual sellers can finally list.

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The collector display at 850 is the number I care about, a third of the sets revenue, finally getting tested.

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If you've been waiting to buy Hobbit sealed, you've been right so far and I'd wait a little longer. Let the new seller's list, see your prices settle, then make your call.

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That's it, see the four port with numbers on mtgsold.com. See you next week.