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You're listening to the MTG sold weekly podcast. This is the week of August 31st to September

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6th, 2026.

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[Music]

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This is the week the Hobbit stop being a demand story and became a supply story.

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If you've been following the Hobbit numbers for the last month, this is the inflection point

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you should mark.

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Revenue across T-CG player came in at about $814,000, units up 9% on the week and the headline

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number barely moved because all of those extra sales happened at lower prices. More

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boxes sold, less money per box, that's the shape of a market where supply is doing the talking.

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The playbusher display took the biggest inventory wave, any Hobbit product has seen since launch.

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Supply surge 35%, the seller count jumped 38%, and sellers cut the price about 9% to $170,

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and the buyers took nearly all of it. 635 units across 523 orders, so if you're wondering

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whether demand cracked in week 4, it didn't. What happened is simpler, enough product

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arrived that sellers had to compete and the clearing price dropped. You're watching supply

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set the terms now, not demand.

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The gift bundle launched September 4th, and the answer to last week's question came

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in loud. 402 units across 272 orders for about $53,000 on T-CG player, with the average price

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falling from $218 to $132. Over 1,000 units showed up on the shelf by September 6, more than

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6 times it was listed the week before, and the lowest ask price dropped from 211 to $114.

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That's still above the $90 MSRP, but the gap is closing fast. If you've been waiting

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for a price to stabilize before buying one, it hasn't stabilized. Supply is arriving faster

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than 400 units a week of demand can absorb, and the slide is still going.

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The collector display, meanwhile, snapped its 3 week gain streak, down about 4% to $809

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on a 15% supply build. Still clearing nearly everything that gets listed, the premium is

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in collapsing, but if you're expecting a 5th consecutive week of green, this is the turn.

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The free ride is over. Reality fracture picked the worst possible

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week to stall. The collector display sat at $532 on an identical 72 unit volume, while supply

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grew 31% and more sellers joined. Supply caught up to the pre-order book one day before

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spoilers season starts, September 8th. Whether the $550 test resumes is now entirely a

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spoiler's question. Meanwhile, the play-booster display answered last week's delay question.

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It's nearly tripled, $89-293, at a flat dollar rate of $148. The Panama Canal delay didn't

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suppress pre-ordering. If anything, it accelerated. Keep an eye out next week, because spoilers

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are the tiebreaker. If the collector display can get moving with new cards on screens, the

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pause was a top. If it can, it was a refuel. Bloomberg, play-booster display, posted the

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week's biggest supply drop, 43%, from 365 units down to 208 average quantity. Sellers barely

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left, the price firmed, and only 52 units crossed our sales tape. So the inventory vanished,

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but only 52 units showed up in our sales data. The read I got this week is speculator buyout

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activity. I want to flag what that means and what it doesn't mean.

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Our listing's data can't distinguish product that was bought out from product that was

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delisted. Either someone took a position or sellers pulled inventory. The tell is

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relisting. If that depth shows back up at higher asks in the coming weeks, someone is trying

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to reprise the product. If it stays gone, it was a consolidation. Either way, 157 units

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of listed depth is gone. And the price didn't flinch. StarTrack is draining, and it's been

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doing it for three weeks. The collector booster display lost another 23% of its listed supply

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down to 39 average quantity held by about 8 sellers, but the price frozen at $699. That's

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the third straight week of decline. The play booster display dropped 26% to, while units

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rose 48 to 73 at a pin price of $153. 10 weeks to the November 13th release, full previews

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aren't expected until mid-delay October. Listed supply draining and flat prices with rising

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volume looks like accumulation. Someone building a position before the catalyst. I can't

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see who's hands it's going into and the listed supply isn't total supply, but three weeks

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of a consistent direction is a trend. If you've been thinking about pre-ordering at $699,

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the available shelf is getting smaller every week. Personally, I'm really excited for

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this set. A few quicker reads. The starter commander deck grave danger is last week's worst

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declineer, wearing a gainer's badge. The markdown I covered seven days ago did exactly what

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markdowns do. Supply fell 20%, the discount inventory cleared, and the price not back to

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about $30. Higher than where the round trip started. If you've ever wondered whether a one

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week price drop is a signal or a clearance event, this is your answer. The sellers who undercut

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each other sold their product and the ones who waited got their price back.

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Bloomberg commander deck animated army got paid for the drain I fly two weeks ago, price

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rose 8% to about $80, but the drain itself paused. Supply bounced back up, sellers returned,

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so the gain is trailing scarcity that already happened, and the market responded to the higher

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price by restocking. Whether the returning supply caps the move is next week's question.

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If you were holding one, the window to sell and disdain this open, but narrowing.

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Last week I told you to watch whether the strict haven tightening resumes, it didn't. The

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Codex bundle supply grew 17% with the price easing to $135, and Prismari artistry last week's

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gainer saw units have even as its price rose another 7% on a 7% supply dip. If you were people

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buying at a higher price on a shelf that barely moved. The structural tightening thesis is

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weakening, not confirming. If you were building a position on that read, the data isn't backing

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you up right now. The lost caverns of Xelon Commander deck explorers of the deep, flipped

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at story, after two weeks of draining supply and a rising price, sellers came back this week,

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supply up 39% and the price still rose. Demand absorbed the returning inventory at the higher

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price sell through, above 1.0. That's what a health review pricing looks like once it

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tracks new supply. Lauren Eclipse Playbooster Display, doubled its volume again, 148 to 321 units,

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at $112, two straight weeks of doubling at a stable price is the demand curve showing

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you where it lives, and the foundations playbooster displays split across venues, TCG player

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supply, filled 30% on man-a-pull supply grew 35%. One venue tightening, the other building,

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no migration claim, just a gap that now exists and probably resolves. You'll want to watch

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which side gives first. So here's what to watch, one, Reality Fracture Spoilers opening

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September 8th, that's the test, two, the Hobbit Supply Wave, does the 644 unit playbooster

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self keep clearing at $175, or does the markdown go deeper? Two A, and the GIF bundle slide

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towards $90 MSRP needs to find a floor. Keep an eye on this, I think 114 is probably the

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floor on these, this is the Hobbit GIF bundle. And three, last thing to watch, StarTrack,

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week four, the collector display has shed supply three weeks straight into a frozen price.

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Watch whether the playbooster follows through as October previews approach. That's the

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week, full numbers and notes in the article on mtgsold.com. See ya!

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[Music]