1
00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:05,000
Before we get started, a quick word from today's sponsor, me.

2
00:00:05,000 --> 00:00:12,400
I built MTGdeck.build, a free machine learning deck builder that creates format legal decks

3
00:00:12,400 --> 00:00:15,520
using only the cards you already own.

4
00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:20,120
It's useful for newer players trying to build their first decks, long-term players looking

5
00:00:20,120 --> 00:00:25,920
to do something with their bulk, and sellers putting together playable budget decks.

6
00:00:25,920 --> 00:00:31,680
It supports commander, popper, legacy, brawl, and several other formats.

7
00:00:31,680 --> 00:00:36,520
Upload your collection, choose a format, and let it build from what you have.

8
00:00:36,520 --> 00:00:38,680
No additional cards required.

9
00:00:38,680 --> 00:00:43,200
You can try it for free at MTGdeck.build.

10
00:00:43,200 --> 00:00:48,480
Again, MTGdeck.build.

11
00:00:48,480 --> 00:00:51,880
You're listening to the MTG Sold podcast.

12
00:00:51,880 --> 00:00:58,880
This is the week of July 27th, to August 2nd, 2026.

13
00:00:58,880 --> 00:01:25,160
All right, week of July 27th, to August 2nd.

14
00:01:25,160 --> 00:01:31,640
So the market's up, about 1.3 million on TCG player, up 12%, and yeah, last week's dip

15
00:01:31,640 --> 00:01:37,160
is gone, but don't take that number at face value, because it's kind of hollow.

16
00:01:37,160 --> 00:01:41,920
Almost half of it is two products, the two hobbit displays, that's it.

17
00:01:41,920 --> 00:01:44,360
And hobbit isn't even out until the 14th.

18
00:01:44,360 --> 00:01:49,480
So half this market is people prepaying for boxes that don't exist yet.

19
00:01:49,480 --> 00:01:52,800
Take those two out, and the rest of the week was pretty flat.

20
00:01:52,800 --> 00:02:00,560
The 12% isn't the market getting healthier, it's the pre-order pile getting bigger.

21
00:02:00,560 --> 00:02:05,800
The single biggest sales day of the week was the 31st, which is the day the full hobbit

22
00:02:05,800 --> 00:02:07,520
card gallery dropped.

23
00:02:07,520 --> 00:02:12,200
So the hype's real, people are buying, it's just all pointed at a box you can't crack

24
00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:14,200
for two more weeks.

25
00:02:14,200 --> 00:02:20,640
And within hobbit, one box did most of the work, the collector display, the expensive one.

26
00:02:20,640 --> 00:02:25,520
Number 500 for them moved, the most business anything on the board did all week.

27
00:02:25,520 --> 00:02:31,000
That's more than 400 grand in a single week, on one box you can't even crack until the

28
00:02:31,000 --> 00:02:32,600
14th.

29
00:02:32,600 --> 00:02:37,840
The cheaper play display did even sillier numbers, it sold through its whole shelf about four

30
00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:39,800
times over.

31
00:02:39,800 --> 00:02:46,120
The collector price actually slipped a little, about 5% downed around 795 on Manipul, while

32
00:02:46,120 --> 00:02:48,040
the play box just sat flat.

33
00:02:48,040 --> 00:02:54,040
I'm not going to over read that, heavy volume at a slightly softer price mostly just tells

34
00:02:54,040 --> 00:02:59,000
me sellers were fine-moved product into all the gallery noise.

35
00:02:59,000 --> 00:03:01,640
But the price at here is where the action is.

36
00:03:01,640 --> 00:03:07,120
So that's the one I'd half watch when these actually open up on the 14th.

37
00:03:07,120 --> 00:03:09,640
And that's the story of the whole board right now, honestly.

38
00:03:09,640 --> 00:03:13,640
The money is going into two spots, and they're kind of opposite.

39
00:03:13,640 --> 00:03:17,280
One is stuff you can't pull the singles out of yet because it isn't printed.

40
00:03:17,280 --> 00:03:21,080
So everyone's just betting on the sealed box, that's hobbit.

41
00:03:21,080 --> 00:03:24,840
The other stuff is stuff you can get more of, period.

42
00:03:24,840 --> 00:03:26,640
Forexia keeps drifting up.

43
00:03:26,640 --> 00:03:31,640
The boxes are getting harder to find, and the price just floats higher on nothing.

44
00:03:31,640 --> 00:03:37,280
On a side note, the unconfirmed, I did talk a little bit with an on TCG in our weekly meetup.

45
00:03:37,280 --> 00:03:43,560
There are some reprints on the horizon for Forexia, the exact date and timing are unconfirmed.

46
00:03:43,560 --> 00:03:50,040
So I keep an eye on this, I wouldn't buy into Forexia at this point.

47
00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:51,720
Then there's the middle.

48
00:03:51,720 --> 00:03:54,040
And the middle is where you're getting hurt.

49
00:03:54,040 --> 00:03:57,800
That's everything that's already out, sitting on the shelves, tons of it.

50
00:03:57,800 --> 00:03:59,880
The stuff people are actually cracking open.

51
00:03:59,880 --> 00:04:01,600
That's marble.

52
00:04:01,600 --> 00:04:06,640
Marbles got the three biggest piles of inventory on the whole board, and pretty much every

53
00:04:06,640 --> 00:04:12,800
marble box on the losers list is somewhere right between 8 and 16%.

54
00:04:12,800 --> 00:04:15,080
The bundle leading lower.

55
00:04:15,080 --> 00:04:18,560
So zoom out and the market's paying up for what it can't buy yet and when it can't buy

56
00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:21,920
anymore, and it's dumping everything in between.

57
00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:26,400
If you're holding marble sealed and hoping for a rebound, it's tight.

58
00:04:26,400 --> 00:04:29,880
The restock is still landing and the price is still sliding.

59
00:04:29,880 --> 00:04:36,440
Not the week to panic sell, but definitely not the week to expect a bounce.

60
00:04:36,440 --> 00:04:41,720
Speaking of that restock, this is the delayed marble stuff from June finally showing up.

61
00:04:41,720 --> 00:04:46,840
The regular Commandadex, the Jumpstar Box, all of it got flooded with new listings this week

62
00:04:46,840 --> 00:04:48,800
and the prices dropped to match.

63
00:04:48,800 --> 00:04:50,480
No surprise there.

64
00:04:50,480 --> 00:04:55,080
The one piece that still has to show up is the premium collector's edition decks.

65
00:04:55,080 --> 00:04:58,560
And those are actually getting a harder to find, not easier.

66
00:04:58,560 --> 00:05:02,440
So the thing I've had to open for two weeks now.

67
00:05:02,440 --> 00:05:06,600
I'm sorry, the thing I've had opened for two weeks now, whether those premium decks

68
00:05:06,600 --> 00:05:11,040
are pricey because people want them or because there aren't many around.

69
00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:12,520
We still don't know.

70
00:05:12,520 --> 00:05:13,800
Keep an eye on those.

71
00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:20,280
We found out the week that their shipment lands if it lands on the restock.

72
00:05:20,280 --> 00:05:22,240
Couple of quick follow ups.

73
00:05:22,240 --> 00:05:23,240
Remember smog?

74
00:05:23,240 --> 00:05:25,240
That scene box that ripped last week?

75
00:05:25,240 --> 00:05:29,360
I was nervous it was fake, like a couple of sellers just pulled their listings, dragged

76
00:05:29,360 --> 00:05:32,080
the price up behind them, turns out no.

77
00:05:32,080 --> 00:05:36,480
They'd held this week right around 98 bucks and it held with more sellers around, not

78
00:05:36,480 --> 00:05:37,680
fewer.

79
00:05:37,680 --> 00:05:40,400
So it's expensive because the cards are good.

80
00:05:40,400 --> 00:05:41,400
People is up.

81
00:05:41,400 --> 00:05:46,480
Funny thing though, over a man of pull, the same box gave the whole game right back, down

82
00:05:46,480 --> 00:05:48,320
like 22%.

83
00:05:48,320 --> 00:05:52,640
Same box, same week, totally different story.

84
00:05:52,640 --> 00:05:55,480
That's the thing about a marketplace where barely anything trades.

85
00:05:55,480 --> 00:05:57,920
The price over there is mostly noise.

86
00:05:57,920 --> 00:06:03,520
When two venues disagree, trust the busy one.

87
00:06:03,520 --> 00:06:06,120
And mystery booster tube pulled the same trick.

88
00:06:06,120 --> 00:06:08,040
It shelf suddenly filled up this week.

89
00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:10,280
Way more listings than before.

90
00:06:10,280 --> 00:06:12,760
That's just what happens when a product gets retired.

91
00:06:12,760 --> 00:06:16,920
The replacement is official now so everybody is sitting on mystery booster tube is unloading

92
00:06:16,920 --> 00:06:19,000
it while it's still worth something.

93
00:06:19,000 --> 00:06:22,280
On TCG player, all that supply showed up and the price didn't move.

94
00:06:22,280 --> 00:06:23,960
On man of pull it dropped.

95
00:06:23,960 --> 00:06:27,720
Same lesson, twice in one week.

96
00:06:27,720 --> 00:06:30,160
Quick fun one before I get to the last thing.

97
00:06:30,160 --> 00:06:32,960
You ever wonder where all these boxes actually ship from?

98
00:06:32,960 --> 00:06:37,320
Washington State is 13% of every seller we can locate.

99
00:06:37,320 --> 00:06:42,320
And Seattle by itself moved almost 11,000 boxes this week.

100
00:06:42,320 --> 00:06:47,280
One city moving more product than most entire states put together.

101
00:06:47,280 --> 00:06:49,720
Make of that what you will.

102
00:06:49,720 --> 00:06:53,920
Okay, last thing and this one's still bugging me.

103
00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:59,600
Second week in a row now, a bunch of random older play boxes, totally unrelated, different

104
00:06:59,600 --> 00:07:03,280
sets, different years, and none of them out of print.

105
00:07:03,280 --> 00:07:09,640
Each lost about a third of their listings and the price held or went up all that happened.

106
00:07:09,640 --> 00:07:14,640
Dusk Morns, the weird poster child here and it's actually one of the week's biggest

107
00:07:14,640 --> 00:07:21,160
gainers up 6% while it's bleeding a third of its shelf at the same time.

108
00:07:21,160 --> 00:07:26,320
This week Aether Drift jumped in and get this, a Star Trek box that isn't even out until

109
00:07:26,320 --> 00:07:27,320
in November.

110
00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:29,280
I don't know what's causing it.

111
00:07:29,280 --> 00:07:34,240
If I had to guess and adjust to guess, it's probably one of two things.

112
00:07:34,240 --> 00:07:39,800
Either some bigger stores are pulling boxes to craft for singles or somebody is quietly

113
00:07:39,800 --> 00:07:43,640
buying a position and doesn't want to spook the price.

114
00:07:43,640 --> 00:07:45,560
But I can't prove either one.

115
00:07:45,560 --> 00:07:49,880
Once there's nothing, twice they write it down, third week I start actually worrying about

116
00:07:49,880 --> 00:07:51,200
it.

117
00:07:51,200 --> 00:07:52,680
So that's your week.

118
00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:58,000
The market's up, but the up is mostly pre-order money on a set that still weeks out.

119
00:07:58,000 --> 00:08:01,400
And the stuff you can actually open keeps getting cheaper.

120
00:08:01,400 --> 00:08:05,680
And those are supply things running in the background that I can't yet explain.

121
00:08:05,680 --> 00:08:09,240
If you're buying, patience is your friend right now.

122
00:08:09,240 --> 00:08:11,640
Nothing on this board is running away from you.

123
00:08:11,640 --> 00:08:15,720
The only thing I'd really wait on is a Hobbit collector box.

124
00:08:15,720 --> 00:08:19,840
If you've been eyeing one, let the 14th give you a real price.

125
00:08:19,840 --> 00:08:24,400
Once people can actually open the thing and the singles set the floor instead of paying

126
00:08:24,400 --> 00:08:34,640
up for the pure hype right now.