1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:04,000 You're listening to the MTG Sold Podcast. 2 00:00:04,000 --> 00:00:12,400 This is the week of July 6th to July 12th, 2026. 3 00:00:12,400 --> 00:00:18,840 This week on TCG Player we tracked 1.02 million on about 6100 units, revenue up around 3 4 00:00:18,840 --> 00:00:21,240 percent, units down a hair. 5 00:00:21,240 --> 00:00:25,240 Last week I said the July 4th weekend crushed volume and if that recovery was real we'd 6 00:00:25,240 --> 00:00:29,600 see units back above 6,000 and revenue back over a million. 7 00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:34,160 We got both, some comfortable calling that dip seasonal, not the start of a marble cool 8 00:00:34,160 --> 00:00:35,160 down. 9 00:00:35,160 --> 00:00:38,680 But the headline isn't the interesting part, the interesting part is where the money 10 00:00:38,680 --> 00:00:42,600 actually went because it's not where the volume is. 11 00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:47,400 This week the top revenue product was the Final Fantasy Collector Boosha display, 101 12 00:00:47,400 --> 00:00:52,120 boxes at an average of $1,550 each. 13 00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:56,560 That's around $157,000 out of one product. 14 00:00:56,560 --> 00:01:01,080 It was by a mile the most expensive thing in the whole data set and people are still 15 00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:04,040 buying it 100 at a time. 16 00:01:04,040 --> 00:01:07,120 Number 2 is the one I want you to sit with for a second. 17 00:01:07,120 --> 00:01:12,400 The Hobbit Collector Boosha display, 113,000 in revenue. 18 00:01:12,400 --> 00:01:14,640 He used to think about the Hobbit set. 19 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:21,080 It does not come out until August 14th, so that entire 113 grand is pre-order money. 20 00:01:21,080 --> 00:01:25,560 People are paying $810 for a product they can't yet hold. 21 00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:29,200 They can't open it and it doesn't exist in stores. 22 00:01:29,200 --> 00:01:34,360 That's worth remembering next time someone tells you the sealed market is rational. 23 00:01:34,360 --> 00:01:38,000 Now marble, because that's the big story and it changed this week. 24 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:42,360 For about a month the four marble commander decks were the tightest products we tracked. 25 00:01:42,360 --> 00:01:47,600 Doom prevails, Avengers Assemble, Fantastic Four, will condo forever. 26 00:01:47,600 --> 00:01:53,080 This week all four went down, between 6.5% and 10% all at once. 27 00:01:53,080 --> 00:01:59,680 And every single one of them added supply, somewhere between 12% and 28% more listings. 28 00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:05,160 The easy read is that the release crunch is over, supply has caught up and prices are normalizing. 29 00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:06,760 And that's true as far as it goes. 30 00:02:06,760 --> 00:02:11,000 But there's a sharper version and this came out of a conversation this week. 31 00:02:11,000 --> 00:02:14,000 There's a confirmed second wave of commander reprints coming. 32 00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:19,720 When supply increases across a product line before a known reprint, it's usually not a coincidence. 33 00:02:19,720 --> 00:02:24,080 People with inventory trying to sell where prices are high before the new print run arrives 34 00:02:24,080 --> 00:02:27,040 and lowers the premium. 35 00:02:27,040 --> 00:02:30,080 I can't prove that from a supply chart and I want to be clear about that. 36 00:02:30,080 --> 00:02:31,880 But here's what makes me lean toward it. 37 00:02:31,880 --> 00:02:37,640 Sell through on those four decks stayed between 0.6 and 0.75. 38 00:02:37,640 --> 00:02:43,880 If you're new here, sell through ratios are a ratio indicator, so 0 being neutral, 1 being 39 00:02:43,880 --> 00:02:46,520 positive, minus 1 being negative. 40 00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:52,680 Again, so these all four decks stayed on a range of 0.6 and 0.75. 41 00:02:52,680 --> 00:02:55,240 So demand, it didn't walk away. 42 00:02:55,240 --> 00:02:57,240 People still wanted the decks. 43 00:02:57,240 --> 00:02:59,120 This wasn't buyers disappearing. 44 00:02:59,120 --> 00:03:03,320 This was just supply showing up early and maybe showing up on purpose. 45 00:03:03,320 --> 00:03:07,160 While we're on marble, a quick follow up on the scene boxes because I flagged them last 46 00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:08,160 week. 47 00:03:08,160 --> 00:03:11,320 I said to watch for a demand showing up around 26 dollars. 48 00:03:11,320 --> 00:03:15,600 A sell through above 0.3 would tell us a floor was forming. 49 00:03:15,600 --> 00:03:16,600 It didn't happen. 50 00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:23,480 Sell through actually fell down to around 0.17 and 0.18 and volume dropped on both boxes, 51 00:03:23,480 --> 00:03:25,400 so the demand didn't arrive. 52 00:03:25,400 --> 00:03:26,960 But here's the twist. 53 00:03:26,960 --> 00:03:31,480 Supply drained hard anyway, down about 27-28%. 54 00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:34,000 Because sellers gave up and delisted. 55 00:03:34,000 --> 00:03:35,920 A market can tighten two ways. 56 00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:38,520 Buyers show up or sellers can leave. 57 00:03:38,520 --> 00:03:40,480 This is the second kind. 58 00:03:40,480 --> 00:03:42,200 That's a weaker floor than the first. 59 00:03:42,200 --> 00:03:44,000 Still, it's forming a floor. 60 00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:49,000 Billions unleashed is already down to about $25. 61 00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:53,240 Back to the Final Fantasy Collector 4 second, because there's a bigger point in it. 62 00:03:53,240 --> 00:03:56,920 That display crossed $1,500 this week and kept going. 63 00:03:56,920 --> 00:03:57,920 Up to about $1,500. 64 00:03:57,920 --> 00:04:02,040 And what makes it different from every other product that tightens is that supply can 65 00:04:02,040 --> 00:04:03,040 never come back. 66 00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:07,960 Final Fantasy Collector Boosters contain 77 serialized, traveling, and chocobocards. 67 00:04:07,960 --> 00:04:11,640 This serialization means wizards can't reprint the box without ruining it. 68 00:04:11,640 --> 00:04:13,560 So the pool only ever drains. 69 00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:15,240 It's a one-way door. 70 00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:19,680 And then, on top of that, this week, the box got a bunch of attention across the magic 71 00:04:19,680 --> 00:04:23,960 YouTube world, which pulled in a wave of sellers trying to flip it quickly. 72 00:04:23,960 --> 00:04:28,840 So now you've got a fixed shrinking supply and a fresh crowd of people cracking boxes chasing 73 00:04:28,840 --> 00:04:29,840 a quick flip. 74 00:04:29,840 --> 00:04:31,280 That's a combustible combination. 75 00:04:31,280 --> 00:04:34,160 It usually gets volatile before it gets stable. 76 00:04:34,160 --> 00:04:36,960 So if you're watching this one, expect some chop. 77 00:04:36,960 --> 00:04:40,840 A couple of gainers are worth calling out for the story behind them, not just the number. 78 00:04:40,840 --> 00:04:45,160 Edge of Eternity's Collector Booster display jumped almost 11% this week. 79 00:04:45,160 --> 00:04:50,600 Up to about $660 a box, closer to around $700 a box as of now. 80 00:04:50,600 --> 00:04:52,200 And its volume nearly doubled. 81 00:04:52,200 --> 00:04:57,680 Now Edge of Eternity is a space set and Star Trek spoilers are July 14th tomorrow. 82 00:04:57,680 --> 00:05:02,200 So what we're probably watching is people front-running, thematic crossover demand before a new 83 00:05:02,200 --> 00:05:04,040 set is even revealed. 84 00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:07,880 They're buying the space product ahead of the other space product, betting on synergy 85 00:05:07,880 --> 00:05:09,920 that hasn't been announced yet. 86 00:05:09,920 --> 00:05:11,720 This market does that. 87 00:05:11,720 --> 00:05:16,520 The other gainer of Flag is the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles pre-release pack, up about 88 00:05:16,520 --> 00:05:17,520 12%. 89 00:05:17,520 --> 00:05:20,160 But I'm flagging it as thin and unconfirmed. 90 00:05:20,160 --> 00:05:23,240 It's 33 units, just a rounding error. 91 00:05:23,240 --> 00:05:26,960 The only chatter is a rumor that distributors are out of turtle product. 92 00:05:26,960 --> 00:05:31,520 I cannot confirm that anywhere, so treated as chatter, not a fact. 93 00:05:31,520 --> 00:05:34,520 Jumpstart is next, the big Kahuna. 94 00:05:34,520 --> 00:05:37,000 And I've got this one half-right and half-wrong last week. 95 00:05:37,000 --> 00:05:42,960 I told you to watch for supply dropping below 40, which would set up a run at 170/180. 96 00:05:42,960 --> 00:05:46,680 The supply did the opposite, and it went up about 24%. 97 00:05:46,680 --> 00:05:48,840 Back up to about 55 listings. 98 00:05:48,840 --> 00:05:57,720 And yet the price still climbed up, 7% to about $166, with sell-through holding around 3x. 99 00:05:57,720 --> 00:06:01,760 Buyers are turning over the entire shelf almost three times a week. 100 00:06:01,760 --> 00:06:03,520 I'll reiterate that. 101 00:06:03,520 --> 00:06:16,200 Wizzards delayed jumpstart in North America and Latin America due to production and shipping 102 00:06:16,200 --> 00:06:17,200 issues. 103 00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:21,440 And it also looks like those delayed shipments are finally landing, which is your supply 104 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:22,440 bounce. 105 00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:28,080 But demand is still so far ahead of a supply that the price rose right into the new inventory. 106 00:06:28,080 --> 00:06:29,800 So I'm not going to pick a side. 107 00:06:29,800 --> 00:06:34,040 If the shipments keep coming, this crunch resolves and the price goes off. 108 00:06:34,040 --> 00:06:40,280 If that was a one-time slug of backlog and the drain starts again, that $170 leg is still 109 00:06:40,280 --> 00:06:41,800 on the table. 110 00:06:41,800 --> 00:06:45,000 Watch the supply line, it'll tell you first. 111 00:06:45,000 --> 00:06:47,240 One more and it's my favorite kind of thing. 112 00:06:47,240 --> 00:06:48,720 The Quiet Crunches. 113 00:06:48,720 --> 00:06:54,480 Away from Marvel and Final Fantasy, there were a handful of old products just tightening. 114 00:06:54,480 --> 00:06:56,960 No news, no story. 115 00:06:56,960 --> 00:07:03,920 The Brothers War, collector booster pack from a 2022 set, lost almost 40% of its supply. 116 00:07:03,920 --> 00:07:10,800 A tarqueer dragon storm precon, Soltaia Risen, shed 42% of its listings and was selling 117 00:07:10,800 --> 00:07:12,960 at through at over 2x. 118 00:07:12,960 --> 00:07:18,440 The Fallout Commander deck case tightened 34% and I went looking. 119 00:07:18,440 --> 00:07:22,800 Reprint news, a ban, a turn of result, a creator video, anything. 120 00:07:22,800 --> 00:07:25,080 I found nothing for any of them. 121 00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:26,560 And that's the point. 122 00:07:26,560 --> 00:07:30,920 These are the products moving on actual supply and demand instead of a headline. 123 00:07:30,920 --> 00:07:34,520 Nobody's talking about them, which is exactly what they're worth watching. 124 00:07:34,520 --> 00:07:39,640 Whenever one looks at Marvel, the real action often happens in the corner. 125 00:07:39,640 --> 00:07:42,160 Two quick housekeeping notes before I wrap. 126 00:07:42,160 --> 00:07:46,720 On the second marketplace, Manipule, most moves were just one or two orders, so I won't 127 00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:49,760 read too much into the percentages, however. 128 00:07:49,760 --> 00:07:56,040 The Jumpstart Crunch appeared there as well, rising about 19% with supply cut in half. 129 00:07:56,040 --> 00:07:59,000 At least the two venues agree on that one. 130 00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:02,880 On geography, people often ask where all this product is. 131 00:08:02,880 --> 00:08:07,600 Washington remains the center with about 12.5% of the total supply. 132 00:08:07,600 --> 00:08:12,040 Seattle alone moved more product than many entire states. 133 00:08:12,040 --> 00:08:16,400 California, Florida, Oregon, right behind it. 134 00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:20,400 If you've ever wondered why the West Coast sets the tone on sealed pricing, that's the 135 00:08:20,400 --> 00:08:22,000 map. 136 00:08:22,000 --> 00:08:23,920 Three things I'm watching next week. 137 00:08:23,920 --> 00:08:26,000 Which way Jumpstart Supply breaks? 138 00:08:26,000 --> 00:08:30,680 What the second commander reprint wave does to the Marvel decks when it actually lands? 139 00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:33,000 Whether they're hold or cave? 140 00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:38,760 And whether Final Fantasy collector holds above 1500 or whether all of those flippers cracking 141 00:08:38,760 --> 00:08:42,240 boxes dump enough supply to stall it. 142 00:08:42,240 --> 00:08:43,560 That's the week. 143 00:08:43,560 --> 00:08:47,840 Numbers down a touch, the top of the market carrying it, and the quiet corners doing the 144 00:08:47,840 --> 00:08:49,240 interesting work. 145 00:08:49,240 --> 00:08:51,480 See the full report on Entry G-Sold. 146 00:08:51,480 --> 00:08:51,720 See ya. 147 00:08:51,720 --> 00:09:01,720 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