1
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Speaker:
Hey everyone.

2
00:00:10,800 --> 00:00:13,120
Speaker:
Quieter week six thousand one
hundred units.

3
00:00:13,120 --> 00:00:14,480
Speaker:
Just over a million dollars in

4
00:00:14,480 --> 00:00:16,480
Speaker:
revenue, down about twenty four

5
00:00:16,480 --> 00:00:17,759
Speaker:
percent in volume from last

6
00:00:17,759 --> 00:00:19,080
Speaker:
week.

7
00:00:19,080 --> 00:00:22,759
Speaker:
But that number needs some
context because last week had

8
00:00:22,759 --> 00:00:24,039
Speaker:
mayhem baked into it.

9
00:00:24,039 --> 00:00:25,259
Speaker:
If you stripped the mayhem spike

10
00:00:25,259 --> 00:00:26,640
Speaker:
out of last week's data, the

11
00:00:26,640 --> 00:00:28,239
Speaker:
surrounding days ran about seven

12
00:00:28,239 --> 00:00:29,760
Speaker:
hundred and eighty six units per

13
00:00:29,760 --> 00:00:30,120
Speaker:
day.

14
00:00:30,120 --> 00:00:33,000
Speaker:
This week averaged about eight
hundred and seventy five, so the

15
00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:35,879
Speaker:
actual underlying pace might
have slightly improved.

16
00:00:35,879 --> 00:00:39,399
Speaker:
The top line decline is really
just the absence of a sale day.

17
00:00:39,399 --> 00:00:42,719
Speaker:
The more interesting shift is
the product mix.

18
00:00:42,719 --> 00:00:46,759
Speaker:
Average revenue per unit went up
from one hundred and fifty five

19
00:00:46,759 --> 00:00:49,280
Speaker:
dollars to one hundred and
seventy one dollars.

20
00:00:49,280 --> 00:00:51,039
Speaker:
The market moved fewer boxes,

21
00:00:51,039 --> 00:00:52,399
Speaker:
but the boxes it moved were more

22
00:00:52,399 --> 00:00:54,000
Speaker:
expensive.

23
00:00:54,000 --> 00:00:56,560
Speaker:
Marvel superheroes accounted for
over forty percent of total

24
00:00:56,560 --> 00:00:58,439
Speaker:
revenue by itself.

25
00:00:58,439 --> 00:01:00,600
Speaker:
That one IP is carrying the
week.

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00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:03,119
Speaker:
All right, let me get into the
supply side because there are

27
00:01:03,119 --> 00:01:06,560
Speaker:
three stories this week and they
are all doing different things.

28
00:01:06,560 --> 00:01:10,679
Speaker:
Jumping into the headlines,
Marvel is absorbing everything.

29
00:01:10,679 --> 00:01:11,759
Speaker:
I want to start with Marvel

30
00:01:11,759 --> 00:01:13,200
Speaker:
superheroes, because the sell

31
00:01:13,200 --> 00:01:14,219
Speaker:
through numbers are kind of

32
00:01:14,219 --> 00:01:15,599
Speaker:
remarkable.

33
00:01:15,599 --> 00:01:17,079
Speaker:
The Marvel Superheroes Collector

34
00:01:17,079 --> 00:01:18,700
Speaker:
Booster Display posted a sell

35
00:01:18,700 --> 00:01:20,420
Speaker:
through ratio of two point nine

36
00:01:20,420 --> 00:01:21,079
Speaker:
eight.

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00:01:21,079 --> 00:01:22,560
Speaker:
Again, if you're new here, sell

38
00:01:22,560 --> 00:01:24,439
Speaker:
through ratio is just a metric

39
00:01:24,439 --> 00:01:27,599
Speaker:
to see the price and I'm sorry,

40
00:01:27,599 --> 00:01:29,959
Speaker:
the sell amount and the supply

41
00:01:29,959 --> 00:01:32,040
Speaker:
amount and positive ratio means

42
00:01:32,040 --> 00:01:34,480
Speaker:
the supply to sell through ratio

43
00:01:34,480 --> 00:01:35,079
Speaker:
is good.

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Speaker:
In this case, we have a positive

45
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Speaker:
of two point nine eight zero

46
00:01:39,120 --> 00:01:39,920
Speaker:
being neutral, one being

47
00:01:39,920 --> 00:01:40,959
Speaker:
positive, minus one being

48
00:01:40,959 --> 00:01:42,000
Speaker:
negative.

49
00:01:42,000 --> 00:01:44,900
Speaker:
So again, Marvel Collector
Booster Display posted a sell

50
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Speaker:
through of two point nine eight.

51
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Speaker:
A ratio of two point nine eight.

52
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Speaker:
Nearly three units sold for

53
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Speaker:
every unit of average listed

54
00:01:52,480 --> 00:01:54,280
Speaker:
inventory.

55
00:01:54,280 --> 00:01:55,000
Speaker:
Say that again.

56
00:01:55,000 --> 00:01:56,920
Speaker:
Nearly three units sold for

57
00:01:56,920 --> 00:01:58,640
Speaker:
every unit of average listed

58
00:01:58,640 --> 00:01:59,599
Speaker:
inventory.

59
00:01:59,599 --> 00:02:01,040
Speaker:
Seven hundred and seven units

60
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Speaker:
moved at four hundred and sixty

61
00:02:02,659 --> 00:02:03,040
Speaker:
nine.

62
00:02:03,040 --> 00:02:05,959
Speaker:
Volume weighted average price
supply dropped twenty eight

63
00:02:05,959 --> 00:02:09,560
Speaker:
percent week over week and
sellers dropped seven percent.

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00:02:11,480 --> 00:02:14,519
Speaker:
The play boosted display is even
more telling because it has a

65
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Speaker:
much bigger inventory pool five
hundred and forty three average

66
00:02:17,719 --> 00:02:21,280
Speaker:
quantity and still posted a
ratio of one point four seven

67
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Speaker:
sell through seven hundred and
ninety nine units on five

68
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Speaker:
hundred and forty three.

69
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Speaker:
Average supply means demand is

70
00:02:27,199 --> 00:02:28,479
Speaker:
chewing through listings faster

71
00:02:28,479 --> 00:02:29,919
Speaker:
than they appear, and this is

72
00:02:29,919 --> 00:02:31,520
Speaker:
the high volume product, not the

73
00:02:31,520 --> 00:02:32,360
Speaker:
premium one.

74
00:02:32,360 --> 00:02:35,139
Speaker:
And the gift bundle came in at a
sell through ratio of one point

75
00:02:35,139 --> 00:02:36,080
Speaker:
nine eight three.

76
00:02:36,080 --> 00:02:37,219
Speaker:
Products sell above the one

77
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Speaker:
point zero sell through ratio

78
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Speaker:
from the same set in the same

79
00:02:39,840 --> 00:02:40,360
Speaker:
week.

80
00:02:40,360 --> 00:02:42,680
Speaker:
That is most unusual.

81
00:02:42,680 --> 00:02:46,919
Speaker:
Most sets maybe have one product
running hot at any given time.

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00:02:46,919 --> 00:02:48,719
Speaker:
Marvel has three across three

83
00:02:48,719 --> 00:02:50,639
Speaker:
different price tiers, with the

84
00:02:50,639 --> 00:02:51,800
Speaker:
collector booster nearly at

85
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Speaker:
three x. Now, the obvious

86
00:02:53,800 --> 00:02:54,919
Speaker:
question is whether this is

87
00:02:54,919 --> 00:02:56,599
Speaker:
sustainable or whether a

88
00:02:56,599 --> 00:02:58,240
Speaker:
distributor restock just hasn't

89
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Speaker:
landed yet.

90
00:02:59,080 --> 00:03:00,800
Speaker:
IP crossover products can cool

91
00:03:00,800 --> 00:03:02,800
Speaker:
fast once the novelty passes and

92
00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:04,000
Speaker:
the distributor waves show up

93
00:03:04,000 --> 00:03:04,960
Speaker:
without warning.

94
00:03:04,960 --> 00:03:06,120
Speaker:
There is one puzzle worth

95
00:03:06,120 --> 00:03:07,479
Speaker:
naming, though the a collector

96
00:03:07,479 --> 00:03:08,960
Speaker:
booster is absorbing at nearly

97
00:03:08,960 --> 00:03:10,919
Speaker:
three X and the price barely

98
00:03:10,919 --> 00:03:12,520
Speaker:
moved down a quarter of a

99
00:03:12,520 --> 00:03:13,439
Speaker:
percent flat.

100
00:03:13,439 --> 00:03:15,680
Speaker:
One possible explanation mayhem

101
00:03:15,680 --> 00:03:16,960
Speaker:
last week may have already

102
00:03:16,960 --> 00:03:18,319
Speaker:
cleared out the cheapest tier of

103
00:03:18,319 --> 00:03:19,000
Speaker:
listings.

104
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Speaker:
That's right, in the four

105
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Speaker:
hundred and sixty nine dollars

106
00:03:21,400 --> 00:03:22,960
Speaker:
floor is firm, and what is

107
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Speaker:
draining now is mid-priced depth

108
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Speaker:
rather than fresh, low priced

109
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Speaker:
inventory.

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Speaker:
Price moves show up once the

111
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Speaker:
remaining depth ends another

112
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Speaker:
notch.

113
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Speaker:
If it's wrong and a restock wave

114
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Speaker:
hits sell through normalizes and

115
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Speaker:
the whole ratio loses its

116
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Speaker:
meaning.

117
00:03:35,599 --> 00:03:38,620
Speaker:
But right now the numbers are
saying demand is real and supply

118
00:03:38,620 --> 00:03:41,439
Speaker:
is behind that two hundred and
thirty seven average quantity on

119
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Speaker:
the collective booster drops
below two hundred next week.

120
00:03:44,319 --> 00:03:47,259
Speaker:
While sell through holds, you're
looking at a genuine supply

121
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Speaker:
crunch on a four hundred and
sixty nine dollars product.

122
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Speaker:
That is kind of a thing that
tends to move price upward,

123
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Speaker:
whether sellers want it or not.

124
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Speaker:
In the next headline, strict

125
00:03:56,120 --> 00:03:57,319
Speaker:
saving is sorting its own

126
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Speaker:
hierarchy.

127
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Speaker:
This one is interesting because
it happens inside a single set.

128
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Speaker:
The Secret of Strict Saving
bundle drop thirty percent

129
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Speaker:
breaking below forty nine
dollars for the first time, and

130
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Speaker:
supply grew eighteen percent,
sellers grew nine percent.

131
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Speaker:
The bundle is where everyone is
dumping new inventory.

132
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Speaker:
Meanwhile, two strict Saving

133
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Speaker:
Commander decks went the other

134
00:04:13,310 --> 00:04:14,830
Speaker:
direction.

135
00:04:14,830 --> 00:04:17,270
Speaker:
Silver Quill Influence gained
twelve percent on shrinking

136
00:04:17,270 --> 00:04:20,669
Speaker:
supply listings, down ten point
five percent, sellers down

137
00:04:20,669 --> 00:04:22,270
Speaker:
fifteen point four percent.

138
00:04:22,270 --> 00:04:24,710
Speaker:
That is a classic tightening
pattern.

139
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Speaker:
Fewer people listing.

140
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Speaker:
Fewer units available.

141
00:04:27,670 --> 00:04:29,730
Speaker:
Price climbing Prismari artistry

142
00:04:29,730 --> 00:04:30,990
Speaker:
gained ten point five percent

143
00:04:30,990 --> 00:04:32,370
Speaker:
two, though against growing

144
00:04:32,370 --> 00:04:33,990
Speaker:
supply, which makes it a weaker

145
00:04:33,990 --> 00:04:34,430
Speaker:
signal.

146
00:04:34,430 --> 00:04:36,589
Speaker:
What I think is happening is
pretty straightforward.

147
00:04:36,589 --> 00:04:39,470
Speaker:
The bundle is the cheapest way
into Strix Haven sealed.

148
00:04:39,470 --> 00:04:41,790
Speaker:
So when sellers get inventory,
they want to move quickly.

149
00:04:41,790 --> 00:04:43,110
Speaker:
They list bundles.

150
00:04:43,110 --> 00:04:45,829
Speaker:
That pushes the bundle supply up
and the bundle price down.

151
00:04:45,829 --> 00:04:47,029
Speaker:
The commander decks are lower

152
00:04:47,029 --> 00:04:48,790
Speaker:
volume, more collector oriented,

153
00:04:48,790 --> 00:04:49,870
Speaker:
and the sellers who hold those

154
00:04:49,870 --> 00:04:51,149
Speaker:
are less motivated to race to

155
00:04:51,149 --> 00:04:51,470
Speaker:
the bottom.

156
00:04:51,470 --> 00:04:52,990
Speaker:
So the product line is
stratifying.

157
00:04:52,990 --> 00:04:55,470
Speaker:
The entry level product gets
cheaper while the specialty

158
00:04:55,470 --> 00:04:56,829
Speaker:
products hold or gain.

159
00:04:56,829 --> 00:04:58,069
Speaker:
The question for next week is

160
00:04:58,069 --> 00:04:59,110
Speaker:
whether the bundle finds a

161
00:04:59,110 --> 00:04:59,350
Speaker:
floor.

162
00:04:59,350 --> 00:05:01,069
Speaker:
Around forty nine dollars sell

163
00:05:01,069 --> 00:05:02,189
Speaker:
through is actually still solid

164
00:05:02,189 --> 00:05:03,870
Speaker:
at a ratio of zero point three

165
00:05:03,870 --> 00:05:04,670
Speaker:
two.

166
00:05:04,670 --> 00:05:06,230
Speaker:
demand exists at this price.

167
00:05:06,230 --> 00:05:09,029
Speaker:
If the supply influx slows down,
even a little, forty nine

168
00:05:09,029 --> 00:05:10,189
Speaker:
dollars could be the support.

169
00:05:10,189 --> 00:05:13,550
Speaker:
But if sellers keep piling in,
there is room for it to drift

170
00:05:13,550 --> 00:05:14,870
Speaker:
lower before stabilizing.

171
00:05:14,870 --> 00:05:18,430
Speaker:
For this next section, I want to
do a new, uh, a new segment

172
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Speaker:
called last week's Call Outs.

173
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Speaker:
And how did they do?

174
00:05:20,670 --> 00:05:22,769
Speaker:
And so I'm going to try to
follow up on things I flag

175
00:05:22,769 --> 00:05:25,670
Speaker:
because it just, it makes, it's
easy to make predictions and

176
00:05:25,670 --> 00:05:26,709
Speaker:
then never check on them.

177
00:05:26,709 --> 00:05:29,389
Speaker:
And I kind of want to avoid
having to do that or just avoid

178
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Speaker:
doing that in general.

179
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Speaker:
So, um, some call outs as a

180
00:05:33,790 --> 00:05:34,949
Speaker:
fraternity is the play booster

181
00:05:34,949 --> 00:05:35,470
Speaker:
display.

182
00:05:35,470 --> 00:05:36,750
Speaker:
Uh, last week I said this was

183
00:05:36,750 --> 00:05:38,509
Speaker:
the demand test supply had grown

184
00:05:38,509 --> 00:05:39,750
Speaker:
thirty four percent and the

185
00:05:39,750 --> 00:05:40,310
Speaker:
price held.

186
00:05:40,310 --> 00:05:42,230
Speaker:
And the question was whether it
would hold.

187
00:05:42,230 --> 00:05:43,269
Speaker:
Again, it did not.

188
00:05:43,269 --> 00:05:45,790
Speaker:
Price dropped six point two
percent this week.

189
00:05:45,790 --> 00:05:48,029
Speaker:
Supply grew another twenty seven
percent.

190
00:05:48,029 --> 00:05:51,629
Speaker:
Sell through is zero point four
zero, which is decent.

191
00:05:51,629 --> 00:05:54,389
Speaker:
But the inventory build up is
winning the race.

192
00:05:54,389 --> 00:05:55,910
Speaker:
The initial scarcity premium is

193
00:05:55,910 --> 00:05:57,230
Speaker:
fading and the product is

194
00:05:57,230 --> 00:05:58,310
Speaker:
settling into whatever its

195
00:05:58,310 --> 00:05:59,670
Speaker:
equilibrium price is going to

196
00:05:59,670 --> 00:06:00,069
Speaker:
be.

197
00:06:00,069 --> 00:06:01,110
Speaker:
The commander decks from that

198
00:06:01,110 --> 00:06:02,089
Speaker:
set are still holding up,

199
00:06:02,089 --> 00:06:02,430
Speaker:
though.

200
00:06:02,430 --> 00:06:05,149
Speaker:
World Shaper gained thirteen
point six percent this week with

201
00:06:05,149 --> 00:06:06,589
Speaker:
healthier supply dynamics.

202
00:06:06,589 --> 00:06:09,269
Speaker:
Another call out from last week
was the Eclipse Commander deck

203
00:06:09,269 --> 00:06:11,310
Speaker:
blight curse last week.

204
00:06:11,310 --> 00:06:14,850
Speaker:
This was the oversupply poster
child sell through ratio of zero

205
00:06:14,850 --> 00:06:16,069
Speaker:
point zero nine.

206
00:06:16,069 --> 00:06:18,110
Speaker:
Supply stacking price falling

207
00:06:18,110 --> 00:06:19,430
Speaker:
this week it bounced fourteen

208
00:06:19,430 --> 00:06:21,029
Speaker:
percent, which looks great on

209
00:06:21,029 --> 00:06:22,470
Speaker:
paper until you notice it was

210
00:06:22,470 --> 00:06:24,350
Speaker:
twenty one units and average

211
00:06:24,350 --> 00:06:25,689
Speaker:
quantity grew to four hundred

212
00:06:25,689 --> 00:06:26,189
Speaker:
and twelve.

213
00:06:26,189 --> 00:06:27,350
Speaker:
The bounce happened on nothing.

214
00:06:27,350 --> 00:06:30,029
Speaker:
Twenty one units against four
hundred units of supply is not a

215
00:06:30,029 --> 00:06:31,589
Speaker:
trend reversal, it's noise.

216
00:06:31,589 --> 00:06:35,089
Speaker:
If anything, the fact that
supply kept growing makes this

217
00:06:35,089 --> 00:06:37,709
Speaker:
situation worse, not better.

218
00:06:37,709 --> 00:06:39,670
Speaker:
The price bounce is a mirage.

219
00:06:39,670 --> 00:06:41,509
Speaker:
And then another call out.

220
00:06:41,509 --> 00:06:44,069
Speaker:
These are two bundled together
Commander Masters, collector

221
00:06:44,069 --> 00:06:47,110
Speaker:
Booster box and Lost Caverns
Commander deck case.

222
00:06:47,110 --> 00:06:49,310
Speaker:
Last week's twin forex sell

223
00:06:49,310 --> 00:06:51,110
Speaker:
through stories both dropped out

224
00:06:51,110 --> 00:06:52,589
Speaker:
of the movers cohort entirely

225
00:06:52,589 --> 00:06:52,910
Speaker:
this week.

226
00:06:52,910 --> 00:06:55,829
Speaker:
They did not decline and they
did not stabilize.

227
00:06:55,829 --> 00:06:57,029
Speaker:
They just went quiet.

228
00:06:57,029 --> 00:06:58,750
Speaker:
Volume dried up enough that they

229
00:06:58,750 --> 00:06:59,750
Speaker:
fell below the reporting

230
00:06:59,750 --> 00:07:00,350
Speaker:
threshold.

231
00:07:00,350 --> 00:07:04,189
Speaker:
A cohort drop out is not a
thesis confirmed or refuted.

232
00:07:04,189 --> 00:07:05,509
Speaker:
It's the data going silent.

233
00:07:05,509 --> 00:07:06,850
Speaker:
The supply driven reversal I

234
00:07:06,850 --> 00:07:08,350
Speaker:
flagged last week is stalled,

235
00:07:08,350 --> 00:07:09,550
Speaker:
not resolved.

236
00:07:09,550 --> 00:07:10,629
Speaker:
I will keep checking.

237
00:07:10,629 --> 00:07:13,389
Speaker:
There's nothing new to say until
transactions pick back up.

238
00:07:13,389 --> 00:07:14,870
Speaker:
And finally, on the call outs.

239
00:07:14,870 --> 00:07:16,470
Speaker:
Final fantasy Chocobo bundle.

240
00:07:16,470 --> 00:07:17,790
Speaker:
Last week, I flagged the seller

241
00:07:17,790 --> 00:07:18,990
Speaker:
count, dropping twenty seven

242
00:07:18,990 --> 00:07:20,269
Speaker:
percent and said to watch

243
00:07:20,269 --> 00:07:21,649
Speaker:
whether it crossed below fifty

244
00:07:21,649 --> 00:07:22,310
Speaker:
sellers.

245
00:07:22,310 --> 00:07:22,790
Speaker:
It did.

246
00:07:22,790 --> 00:07:25,470
Speaker:
Sellers fell to forty five point
six this week.

247
00:07:25,470 --> 00:07:28,189
Speaker:
Volume weighted average price
held essentially flat at two

248
00:07:28,189 --> 00:07:31,029
Speaker:
hundred and forty one dollars,
while average quantity drained

249
00:07:31,029 --> 00:07:34,790
Speaker:
another twenty two percent to
ninety six point nine.

250
00:07:34,790 --> 00:07:36,410
Speaker:
Sell through cooled from zero

251
00:07:36,410 --> 00:07:38,189
Speaker:
point six four to zero point

252
00:07:38,189 --> 00:07:40,410
Speaker:
five four, so the buying tempo

253
00:07:40,410 --> 00:07:42,509
Speaker:
slowed, but the supply side kept

254
00:07:42,509 --> 00:07:43,470
Speaker:
thinning anyway.

255
00:07:43,470 --> 00:07:46,990
Speaker:
The product is doing that thing
where the pool quietly shrinks

256
00:07:46,990 --> 00:07:49,470
Speaker:
while no one is looking at it
because the price is not moving.

257
00:07:49,470 --> 00:07:50,949
Speaker:
If sellers keep exiting at this

258
00:07:50,949 --> 00:07:52,529
Speaker:
rate, the price catches up

259
00:07:52,529 --> 00:07:53,470
Speaker:
eventually.

260
00:07:53,470 --> 00:07:55,550
Speaker:
And that's it for our call outs
from last week.

261
00:07:55,550 --> 00:07:59,829
Speaker:
Jumping into some more forward
looking thoughts, avatar is

262
00:07:59,829 --> 00:08:01,269
Speaker:
doing something weird.

263
00:08:01,269 --> 00:08:03,509
Speaker:
This is a quick one, but I want
to flag it because it doesn't

264
00:08:03,509 --> 00:08:05,509
Speaker:
fit the normal patterns.

265
00:08:05,509 --> 00:08:08,589
Speaker:
Avatar The Last Airbender
Collector Booster Display drops

266
00:08:08,589 --> 00:08:10,350
Speaker:
six percent on price.

267
00:08:10,350 --> 00:08:13,350
Speaker:
Normally, when I see a price
decline, I look at supply and

268
00:08:13,350 --> 00:08:15,029
Speaker:
see inventory growing.

269
00:08:15,029 --> 00:08:16,430
Speaker:
That is the standard story.

270
00:08:16,430 --> 00:08:18,670
Speaker:
More supply than demand can
absorb.

271
00:08:18,670 --> 00:08:20,189
Speaker:
Price adjusts.

272
00:08:20,189 --> 00:08:23,750
Speaker:
Here supply is down sixteen
percent.

273
00:08:23,750 --> 00:08:26,350
Speaker:
Sellers are down eight point
five percent.

274
00:08:26,350 --> 00:08:27,310
Speaker:
The pool is shrinking.

275
00:08:27,310 --> 00:08:28,910
Speaker:
Price declining while supply

276
00:08:28,910 --> 00:08:30,470
Speaker:
also declines, is not a great

277
00:08:30,470 --> 00:08:31,029
Speaker:
signal.

278
00:08:31,029 --> 00:08:32,870
Speaker:
It usually means demand is
softening.

279
00:08:32,870 --> 00:08:35,310
Speaker:
Rather than losing a race
against new listings.

280
00:08:35,310 --> 00:08:38,149
Speaker:
When sellers are leaving and
inventory is dropping and the

281
00:08:38,149 --> 00:08:41,230
Speaker:
price still can't hold, the
buyers may be drying up.

282
00:08:41,230 --> 00:08:44,669
Speaker:
It is twenty five units at three
hundred and seventy four volume

283
00:08:44,669 --> 00:08:45,870
Speaker:
weighted average price.

284
00:08:45,870 --> 00:08:48,870
Speaker:
So this isn't a huge sample, but
it's the one product this week

285
00:08:48,870 --> 00:08:52,070
Speaker:
where the supply and price
combination is going in an

286
00:08:52,070 --> 00:08:54,909
Speaker:
unusual direction, and I think
it's worth keeping an eye on.

287
00:08:54,909 --> 00:08:57,909
Speaker:
If next week's supply drops
again and the price drops again,

288
00:08:57,909 --> 00:09:00,909
Speaker:
you have a product with a demand
problem, not a supply problem.

289
00:09:00,909 --> 00:09:02,029
Speaker:
Those behave differently.

290
00:09:02,029 --> 00:09:04,590
Speaker:
Two more things foundations.

291
00:09:04,590 --> 00:09:07,350
Speaker:
Collector boosted display is
doing something familiar.

292
00:09:07,350 --> 00:09:08,870
Speaker:
Supply down twenty eight
percent.

293
00:09:08,870 --> 00:09:10,909
Speaker:
Average quantity at thirty six
point two.

294
00:09:10,909 --> 00:09:13,309
Speaker:
Sell through zero point six
nine.

295
00:09:13,309 --> 00:09:15,549
Speaker:
Price coming up to seven hundred
and ten.

296
00:09:15,549 --> 00:09:18,029
Speaker:
If that average quantity number
sounds familiar, it should.

297
00:09:18,029 --> 00:09:20,190
Speaker:
Commander Masters collector
booster Box was sitting at

298
00:09:20,190 --> 00:09:22,549
Speaker:
thirty six when I started
flagging it three weeks ago.

299
00:09:22,549 --> 00:09:23,830
Speaker:
That product is still draining.

300
00:09:23,830 --> 00:09:26,710
Speaker:
Foundations is now at the same
inventory level on a product

301
00:09:26,710 --> 00:09:28,710
Speaker:
that costs nearly twice as much.

302
00:09:28,710 --> 00:09:30,990
Speaker:
I'm not drawing a direct
comparison because demand

303
00:09:30,990 --> 00:09:33,710
Speaker:
profiles are different, but the
supply mechanics are rhyming.

304
00:09:33,710 --> 00:09:34,870
Speaker:
Worth a quiet bookmark.

305
00:09:34,870 --> 00:09:37,470
Speaker:
And then there's the Doctor Who
Commander deck display sell

306
00:09:37,470 --> 00:09:40,429
Speaker:
through of zero point nine seven
on an average quantity of just

307
00:09:40,429 --> 00:09:43,149
Speaker:
twenty two point eight, exactly
a one to one ratio.

308
00:09:43,149 --> 00:09:46,029
Speaker:
Demand is absorbing supply at
exactly the same rate.

309
00:09:46,029 --> 00:09:47,629
Speaker:
It appears twenty two units of

310
00:09:47,629 --> 00:09:49,129
Speaker:
average quantity is generally

311
00:09:49,129 --> 00:09:50,470
Speaker:
thin for any product, and a

312
00:09:50,470 --> 00:09:52,070
Speaker:
ratio of zero point nine seven

313
00:09:52,070 --> 00:09:53,509
Speaker:
is the kind of ratio where one

314
00:09:53,509 --> 00:09:55,149
Speaker:
solid buying weak tips it into

315
00:09:55,149 --> 00:09:55,990
Speaker:
crunch territory.

316
00:09:55,990 --> 00:09:57,389
Speaker:
It only moved twenty two units

317
00:09:57,389 --> 00:09:58,799
Speaker:
for Five thousand eight hundred

318
00:09:58,799 --> 00:09:59,779
Speaker:
and sixty eight dollars this

319
00:09:59,779 --> 00:09:59,980
Speaker:
week.

320
00:09:59,980 --> 00:10:01,820
Speaker:
The dollar volume is small, but

321
00:10:01,820 --> 00:10:03,100
Speaker:
the ratio is the interesting

322
00:10:03,100 --> 00:10:03,340
Speaker:
part.

323
00:10:03,340 --> 00:10:06,419
Speaker:
If sell through ticks above one
point zero next week on the same

324
00:10:06,419 --> 00:10:09,460
Speaker:
supply base, this quietly
becomes one of the tightest

325
00:10:09,460 --> 00:10:10,779
Speaker:
products on the market.

326
00:10:10,779 --> 00:10:14,100
Speaker:
Jumping into what to watch for
next week segment.

327
00:10:14,100 --> 00:10:15,860
Speaker:
Five things this week one.

328
00:10:15,860 --> 00:10:18,620
Speaker:
Marvel Super-Heroes Collector
Booster Display average quantity

329
00:10:18,620 --> 00:10:19,899
Speaker:
is two hundred and thirty seven.

330
00:10:19,899 --> 00:10:22,720
Speaker:
Sell through is nearly three X,
and supply is falling twenty

331
00:10:22,720 --> 00:10:23,740
Speaker:
eight percent per week.

332
00:10:23,740 --> 00:10:26,100
Speaker:
If that holds, this product
reprices upward.

333
00:10:26,100 --> 00:10:27,659
Speaker:
If a distributor dump lands and

334
00:10:27,659 --> 00:10:29,379
Speaker:
the supply jumps, the whole

335
00:10:29,379 --> 00:10:31,019
Speaker:
dynamic resets.

336
00:10:31,019 --> 00:10:33,500
Speaker:
The number to watch is average
quantity.

337
00:10:33,500 --> 00:10:36,340
Speaker:
If it drops below two hundred,
the crunch is real.

338
00:10:36,340 --> 00:10:39,539
Speaker:
Two districts Haven bundle at
forty nine dollars sell through

339
00:10:39,539 --> 00:10:42,519
Speaker:
is still decent if the supply
build slows and forty nine

340
00:10:42,519 --> 00:10:44,100
Speaker:
dollars holds the product line.

341
00:10:44,100 --> 00:10:48,100
Speaker:
Repricing within strict Haven is
probably done if it breaks below

342
00:10:48,100 --> 00:10:49,059
Speaker:
forty nine dollars.

343
00:10:49,059 --> 00:10:50,500
Speaker:
On continued inventory growth,

344
00:10:50,500 --> 00:10:51,659
Speaker:
there is more room to fall

345
00:10:51,659 --> 00:10:52,980
Speaker:
either way, the commander decks

346
00:10:52,980 --> 00:10:54,320
Speaker:
seem to be decoupling from the

347
00:10:54,320 --> 00:10:55,980
Speaker:
bundle, which is worth noting

348
00:10:55,980 --> 00:10:57,539
Speaker:
for anyone holding strict saving

349
00:10:57,539 --> 00:10:59,740
Speaker:
sealed three Avatar The Last

350
00:10:59,740 --> 00:11:01,019
Speaker:
Airbender Collector Booster

351
00:11:01,019 --> 00:11:02,620
Speaker:
Display I want another data

352
00:11:02,620 --> 00:11:04,399
Speaker:
point on the price down supply

353
00:11:04,399 --> 00:11:05,779
Speaker:
down combination.

354
00:11:05,779 --> 00:11:07,980
Speaker:
One week of it is a curiosity.

355
00:11:07,980 --> 00:11:08,659
Speaker:
Two weeks of.

356
00:11:08,659 --> 00:11:11,940
Speaker:
It is a pattern that tells you
something about where collector

357
00:11:11,940 --> 00:11:14,340
Speaker:
demand sits for that IP.

358
00:11:14,340 --> 00:11:15,639
Speaker:
At the three hundred and seventy

359
00:11:15,639 --> 00:11:18,299
Speaker:
five dollars price point for

360
00:11:18,299 --> 00:11:19,899
Speaker:
foundations collector booster

361
00:11:19,899 --> 00:11:21,940
Speaker:
display at thirty six average

362
00:11:21,940 --> 00:11:23,419
Speaker:
quantity if it drops below

363
00:11:23,419 --> 00:11:25,139
Speaker:
thirty next week, which with a

364
00:11:25,139 --> 00:11:26,460
Speaker:
sell through still above zero

365
00:11:26,460 --> 00:11:27,840
Speaker:
point five, that's seven hundred

366
00:11:27,840 --> 00:11:29,019
Speaker:
and ten price point starts to

367
00:11:29,019 --> 00:11:30,620
Speaker:
look like a flaw rather than a

368
00:11:30,620 --> 00:11:30,980
Speaker:
ceiling.

369
00:11:30,980 --> 00:11:33,220
Speaker:
This one could quietly move
while everyone is watching.

370
00:11:33,220 --> 00:11:35,899
Speaker:
Marvel five Doctor Who Commander

371
00:11:35,899 --> 00:11:37,879
Speaker:
Deck Display the zero point nine

372
00:11:37,879 --> 00:11:39,320
Speaker:
seven sell through on twenty two

373
00:11:39,320 --> 00:11:39,700
Speaker:
point eight.

374
00:11:39,700 --> 00:11:42,220
Speaker:
Average quantity is right on the
edge.

375
00:11:42,220 --> 00:11:45,019
Speaker:
If it crosses a sell through
ratio of one point zero next

376
00:11:45,019 --> 00:11:46,139
Speaker:
week, flag it.

377
00:11:46,139 --> 00:11:49,139
Speaker:
If supply drops below twenty,
flag it harder.

378
00:11:49,139 --> 00:11:52,860
Speaker:
Small dollar volume, but the
mechanics are coiled.

379
00:11:52,860 --> 00:11:53,620
Speaker:
That's it.

380
00:11:53,620 --> 00:11:56,139
Speaker:
Numbers are in their full report
on MTG sold article.

381
00:11:56,139 --> 00:11:57,220
Speaker:
See you next week.