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You're listening to the MTG Soul Weekly Podcast.

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This is the week of June 29th to July 5th, 2026.

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(upbeat music)

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Everyone, first full week after Marvel Superhero's release

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and it came with the July 4th weekend.

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A little under a million dollars, 899,711

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and TCG players sell revenue.

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That was across 5,812 units.

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Overall, down 10% on revenue,

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down 21% on units from last week.

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That does sound like a cool down

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and I think some of it is,

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but July 4th landing on a Saturday

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crushed the weekend numbers.

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Saturday and Sunday average 780 units

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versus the normal 1,100 on the weekdays.

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Average sale price actually went up from $136 to $155

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because the buyer mixed shifted towards collector products.

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So fewer people bought, but the ones who did

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sped more.

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I think this is mostly a holiday dip.

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The weekday numbers look normal, we'll know next week.

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Jumping into the headlines for the week.

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Avengers assemble and doom prevails

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finally got restocked enough.

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This is a story I've been tracking for three weeks

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and it resolved.

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Two weeks ago, Avengers assemble was at 41.8

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average quantity with 3.86 sell-through.

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Last week, the first restock derived,

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supply grew 58% and sell-through barely budge

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from the sell-through ratio of 3.78.

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I said the restocked arrived and it was not enough.

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This week, a second wave hit.

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Average quantity more than doubled from 66.2

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to 149.8.

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Sellers grew from 16.1 to 42.

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Sell-through dropped though to 0.89.

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Price down 4.5% to $68.66.

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Doom prevails followed the same pattern.

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Average quantity grew from 87.3 to $160.

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I'm sorry, 260 units.

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Sellers from 20.8 to 44.7.

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Sell-through fell to 0.92, price down 6.9% to $93.15.

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Both products are still absorbing

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at healthy rates near one to one,

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which means demand did not disappear.

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But the structural crunch is over.

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These are no longer a scarcity product.

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They are normally supplied commandodex with solid demand.

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That is a different and less interesting story,

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so I'm retiring both from the weekly tracking thread.

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In the next headline, Jumpstart is now the only story.

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Here's what makes the Jumpstart number strange.

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Every other Marvel product got restocked

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over the past two weeks.

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Jumpstart lost another 15% of its inventory,

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volume-in-average price went from $128 and 57 cents

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to $154.44, up 20% in one week.

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Sell-through with a positive ratio of 3.33,

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average quantity dropped from 52.2 to 44.5,

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which is the below the 50-year threshold

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I flagged last week as the scarcity trigger.

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Cellar count ticked up from 14.9 to 17.

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So, new sellers are trying to participate,

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but they can't list products that don't exist in the channel.

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The Watsy and the distributor supply constraint

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on Jumpstart is still in effect.

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Whatever is holding this product back

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is not a normal restart delay.

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It has been weeks.

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At 44.5 average quantity with a 3.3 XL through,

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the supply runway is measured in days.

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If this drops below 40 next week,

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I think we see it moved towards 170, 180.

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I don't say that lightly though,

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because I've been cautious about price predictions

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in prior episodes, but the mechanics here

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are as clear as they get.

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In the next headline, FD is building quietly.

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I want to flag this because it's easy to miss

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a week dominated by Marvel.

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The FD is displayed gain 14.3%

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to 1458 vol. weighted average price.

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63 units at 1458.

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That is 91,868 dollars in weekly revenue from one product.

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Supply contracted 21.6%

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sellers down 13.3%.

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Sell through 0.59 ratio.

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The collector booster pack, the individual pack,

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gained 16.7% up to $125.57

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on supply down 25.1%.

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Both products are tightening on supply simultaneously

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and neither has had the kind of event catalyst

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that drove the Marvel crunch.

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My read, this is just a post launch absorption,

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working through the available inventory.

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It makes it quieter and I think more sustainable.

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A price move driven by gradual supply drawdown

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is harder to reverse with a single restock

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than a spike driven by a pre-release weekend.

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In the next headline,

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Seen boxes broke below $27.

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Third consecutive week on the declineer board.

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Villains unleashed at $26.26.22.

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Here was united at $26.93,

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both down 14 to 16%.

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But here is something that changed.

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Volume roughly doubled on both.

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Villains went from 66 to 119 units.

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Heroes from 81 to 127 units.

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The lower price is attracting bargain buyers

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and supply actually contracted 12%

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on both as some sellers presumably decided

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$26 was not worth elisting.

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Sell through ratio improved on a scale roughly of 10%.

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I'm not gonna call this a four,

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589 units of inventory with 119 selling per week

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is still a five week backlog on villains,

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but the direction changed for the first time.

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Demand is responding to price

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and supplies responding to seller exits.

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As sell through gets above 0.30 next week

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and mechanics start working in the right direction,

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we'll see what happens.

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I personally am not bullish on this product at all.

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Some follow ups from last week,

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Chocobal Bundle, $294.82,

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up 3%, supply down to 96.1, sellers at 51.0.

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Last week I said if this holds above the $280,

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the equilibrium is 285 to 295.

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It held and bounced.

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I think this is subtle,

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the breakout from 239 resolved to a 285 to 95 equilibrium.

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Unless something structural changes,

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I'm dropping it from the weekly tracking.

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In the next follow up, Structave and Bundle,

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$38.50 down 5.6%.

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Two weeks ago I said one more data point

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now call the floor,

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then decline reaccelerated from a minus 3.3%

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to minus 4.4% to a whopping 5.6% negative.

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I was wrong about the floor being in the low 40s.

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This product is still falling.

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Supply is slightly down to 476.7,

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but sell through at a ratio of 0.27

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is not enough to stabilize the price.

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Keeping it active, the floor might be 35.37.

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Avatar collector, bruiser display,

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$419.01, up to 2.1%,

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supply down 17.1%,

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275.9.

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Still tightening,

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but the pace is slower than the final fantasy collector tier.

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The pack dropped below the reporting threshold this week,

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so I'm only tracking the display going forward.

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One of the pairs gone,

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which weakens the signal,

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keeping it active with lower confidence.

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Duskmoren endless punishment.

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I've been talking about this for almost like seven weeks now.

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Drop below the reporting threshold,

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the volume went quiet.

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I don't know if that means of the product stabilized

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at $194 or if demand evaporated.

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No did it really evaluate this week.

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We're tying this until next week.

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Well, conda forever, $53.37,

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basically flat plus 0.3% in the price.

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Sell through ratio of 0.86,

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average quantity of $208.8,

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cents, I'm sorry, 208.8 units,

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down 6.9%.

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The post-restock level is holding in the low 50s.

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Supply is slowly contracting.

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This product finally's equilibrium,

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retiring from this thread.

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One new thread,

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last caverns, Velocer Amptor Deck.

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This appeared on the sell-through table

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at 1.43x on 50.3 average quantity.

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Volume-witted average price, $104.97,

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and 90 cents on 72 units across 72 orders,

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all single copy purchases.

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Supply contracted 25.5%,

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sellers down 11.4%.

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An older product quietly draining, flagging it.

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If sell-through holds above 1.0 next week,

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this is a real crunch.

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If it drops back below,

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it was a one week compression.

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We'll see next week.

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And for our final segment, what to watch next week?

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One, jumpstart boost display,

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below 40 average quantity is the next threshold.

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If it gets there with sell-through still above 3.0,

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$170 plus volume-weighted average price

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is the target.

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Seller count is the secondary indicator.

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Two, post-holiday volume recovery.

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If total cohort revenue bounces back above 950K,

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and units above 6,000,

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the July 4 dip was seasonal.

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If it stays below the post-release demand curve,

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may be bending.

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Three, final fantasy collector boost display.

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At $1,458 on supply down 21.6%,

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if the drawdown continues,

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1,500 plus is next if supply stabilizes the move stalls.

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Four, scene box sell-through,

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both double that volume at $26.27,

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if sell-through gets above the 0.3.0,

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the floor is forming.

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If not, sub $24.

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Five, Strix Heaven bundle, $38.50,

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and still falling,

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35.37 is the next range of test.

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That's it,

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numbers are in their four-port MTG sold.

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See you next week.