1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:06,100 You're listening to the MTG sold podcast. This is the week of October 5th through October 11th 2 00:00:06,100 --> 00:00:08,740 2026 3 00:00:08,740 --> 00:00:15,800 Nothing came out this week. That's it. That's the whole premise 4 00:00:15,800 --> 00:00:18,480 Reality fracture is in its second week 5 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:25,400 Foundations commander is in its second week and the market did what a market does when nobody hands it a release on a Friday 6 00:00:26,400 --> 00:00:33,000 Here's the number that bug me though T.C. G. player did about 970,000 on just over 7,000 units 7 00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:37,000 Down 30% from release week which you'd expect 8 00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:39,480 But it also came in under every 9 00:00:39,480 --> 00:00:45,680 September week under the Hobbit pre-order week under the LTR wave week 10 00:00:45,680 --> 00:00:51,720 It's still the lightest week since the end of August and reality fracture was still 46% of it 11 00:00:53,120 --> 00:00:56,360 Last week the Hobbit line gave up share without giving up price 12 00:00:56,360 --> 00:00:59,240 This week the share stayed gone 13 00:00:59,240 --> 00:01:02,000 Hobbit did 509 units from 14 00:01:02,000 --> 00:01:04,720 754 and held price again 15 00:01:04,720 --> 00:01:07,300 Daily units ran 1100 to 16 00:01:07,300 --> 00:01:11,680 1350 every single day if you're a seller 17 00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:16,040 This is a week to hold your asking price not chase if you're a buyer 18 00:01:16,040 --> 00:01:18,800 Nothing really moved against you 19 00:01:19,920 --> 00:01:24,000 Reality fracture week 2 and I owe you correction before I give you the full story 20 00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:32,160 Our supply numbers compare this week's average shelf the last weeks and last week's average includes four pre-release days when the reality 21 00:01:32,160 --> 00:01:35,560 Fracture collector booster display shelf was a fraction of its release size 22 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:40,360 So the tiles on the site say it's seller count doubled and the shelf grew 60% 23 00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:43,200 I nearly read that to you as a supply wave 24 00:01:43,200 --> 00:01:46,360 Then I pulled the clothes of day snapshots October 4th 25 00:01:47,440 --> 00:01:51,040 65 boxes 71 sellers October 11th 26 00:01:51,040 --> 00:01:55,120 262 boxes 77 sellers flat 27 00:01:55,120 --> 00:01:57,120 Nothing arrived 28 00:01:57,120 --> 00:01:59,120 What did happen is price 29 00:01:59,120 --> 00:02:04,720 The collector display went for about $483 to about $440 30 00:02:04,720 --> 00:02:09,520 Down on was 9% on 478 boxes from 31 00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:14,480 666 the premium over the pack equivalent sticker has gone 32 00:02:15,120 --> 00:02:20,120 4649 and 36 across three weeks 33 00:02:20,120 --> 00:02:26,720 The biggest seller on the shelf cut from 520 to 445 dollars 34 00:02:26,720 --> 00:02:32,160 The low asking price touched 410 dollars on Friday 35 00:02:32,160 --> 00:02:36,600 Price down volume down supply flat 36 00:02:36,600 --> 00:02:40,080 That sellers marking into a softer week 37 00:02:40,080 --> 00:02:44,120 The collector display didn't get away. It got a haircut 38 00:02:44,120 --> 00:02:50,200 The reality fracture bundle is the one delayed product that visibly showed up 39 00:02:50,200 --> 00:02:55,920 October 4th 119 boxes across 22 sellers October 11th 40 00:02:55,920 --> 00:03:02,280 358 boxes across 65 sellers climbing every single day in between 41 00:03:02,280 --> 00:03:04,120 tripled 42 00:03:04,120 --> 00:03:07,400 The clearance price held at about 61 dollars and 50 cents 43 00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:12,520 6% over sticker while the low asking price slid to 50 dollars under it 44 00:03:13,400 --> 00:03:16,360 My read is that the delayed allocation is landing 45 00:03:16,360 --> 00:03:18,600 Though no solution confirms a shipment 46 00:03:18,600 --> 00:03:24,200 And the alternative is stores sitting on pre-order stock and finally listing it once the price stopped moving 47 00:03:24,200 --> 00:03:30,400 Then the reality fracture secret layer bundle 48 00:03:30,400 --> 00:03:35,000 Which ships October 23rd and was the top declineer in the entire market 49 00:03:35,000 --> 00:03:40,200 Down 24% from $240 to 183 50 00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:44,600 Last week it told you the drain had stopped on Monday the 6th 51 00:03:44,600 --> 00:03:49,400 One new seller listed 62 units at about $174 52 00:03:49,400 --> 00:03:54,600 The shelf went from 91 listings to 182 in a day 53 00:03:54,600 --> 00:04:01,400 And the biggest incumbent cut from 241 dollars to 178 dollars 54 00:04:01,400 --> 00:04:05,600 Seller count was 14 on the 4th and 14th on the 11th 55 00:04:06,200 --> 00:04:16,200 One listing did this and the $183 is still 103% over the $90 sticker with release stock not on the shelf yet 56 00:04:16,200 --> 00:04:22,600 If you're holding at pre-order prices you're the high asking price on your own shelf now 57 00:04:22,600 --> 00:04:31,400 Foundations commander were all 5 decks went up and I want to be careful about why 58 00:04:32,600 --> 00:04:38,200 Rain of dragons leads TCG player gainers up 16% to about $44 59 00:04:38,200 --> 00:04:40,600 Calling all angels up 14 60 00:04:40,600 --> 00:04:47,400 Wretched ranks up 13 and trampol source wrecks up 9% to about 58 dollars 61 00:04:47,400 --> 00:04:51,000 Now 92% over the $30 sticker 62 00:04:51,000 --> 00:04:58,200 Even King Engineering last week's bottom of the market recovered 7% to $28 63 00:04:58,200 --> 00:05:01,800 Still under sticker the only one of the 5 64 00:05:01,800 --> 00:05:11,800 Every one of those rows on falling volume the 5 decks moved 625 units from over a thousand and the shelves drained 65 00:05:11,800 --> 00:05:17,400 Calling all angels went from 66 boxes to 30 in 7 days 66 00:05:17,400 --> 00:05:21,000 Rex went from 56 to 35 67 00:05:21,000 --> 00:05:23,400 Nobody restocked anything 68 00:05:23,400 --> 00:05:29,000 Last week I asked whether wreck shelf would refill it did not 69 00:05:30,200 --> 00:05:40,200 Sellers nearly doubled on wrecks and the shelf still shrink which means the new sellers are listing 2 or 3 copies each and selling out 70 00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:50,200 Price up with volume down is a shelf running out as best I can tell launch allocation sold through and stores haven't reordered yet 71 00:05:50,200 --> 00:05:53,000 Or they're holding the second carton for the holidays 72 00:05:53,800 --> 00:06:01,800 For any of the 5 the market is paying more because there's less of it and that holds exactly until the next box lands 73 00:06:01,800 --> 00:06:14,200 Fallout volume across the 5 universe beyond Fallout products tripled from 235 units to 558 and 4 of the 5 got marked down 74 00:06:14,200 --> 00:06:21,400 Scrappy survivors fell 22% to about $64.50 on 118 units from 25 75 00:06:22,200 --> 00:06:30,200 The commander debt case fell 11% to about $278 and still did almost 33,000 76 00:06:30,200 --> 00:06:36,200 Hail Caesar fell a second straight week $101.87 to 75 77 00:06:36,200 --> 00:06:41,400 A small Fallout reprint is trickling into the market and that's pretty much what we're seeing 78 00:06:41,400 --> 00:06:46,600 Price down with volume up 5 times is sellers cutting and buyers taking the size 79 00:06:47,800 --> 00:06:53,400 Whether that's reprint cases reaching stores or stores clearing ahead of it 80 00:06:53,400 --> 00:07:00,600 I can't tell from the tape but Hail Caesar's sell through is 0.42 positive 81 00:07:00,600 --> 00:07:05,000 So new supply is outrunning buyers at this price 82 00:07:05,000 --> 00:07:13,000 Star Trek 5 weeks out from November 13th and this one's a single listing wearing a trench coat 83 00:07:14,200 --> 00:07:18,600 The Star Trek collector booster displayed pre-order shelf on TCG player 84 00:07:18,600 --> 00:07:25,800 sat between 139 and 175 boxes all week 22 to 24 sellers 85 00:07:25,800 --> 00:07:31,800 Then on Sunday it closed at 365 boxes 86 00:07:31,800 --> 00:07:41,400 Same 22 sellers one seller went from 25 listed boxes to 217 at about $663 87 00:07:41,800 --> 00:07:46,600 That's 61% of the entire pre-order shelf in one listing 88 00:07:46,600 --> 00:07:54,200 Either that's a store listing its full allocation or it's a distributor backed listing 89 00:07:54,200 --> 00:07:56,600 And those look identical in our data 90 00:07:56,600 --> 00:08:03,000 Keep an eye out on whether that 217 moves and whether anyone follows it to 663 91 00:08:03,000 --> 00:08:07,400 The Star Trek play booster display built the normal way 92 00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:15,400 224 boxes to 284 across new sellers price flat at about $152 93 00:08:15,400 --> 00:08:20,200 27% under what 30 packs cost at sticker 94 00:08:20,200 --> 00:08:26,200 If you want Star Trek play boosters their pre-order is already under MSRP 95 00:08:26,200 --> 00:08:28,600 Quick ones 96 00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:33,800 The Lord of the Rings set booster box resolved none of last week's three branches 97 00:08:34,200 --> 00:08:37,400 300 broke by 22 cents on half the volume 98 00:08:37,400 --> 00:08:40,600 And sellers went from 64 to 66 99 00:08:40,600 --> 00:08:49,400 Test resets under $295 with sellers above 70 is wave 2 winning 100 00:08:49,400 --> 00:08:55,000 Sell through back above 1 with sellers flat is the floor holding 101 00:08:55,000 --> 00:09:01,000 Maniple did about 88,000 down from 117,000 102 00:09:01,400 --> 00:09:06,600 And the place to venue split is the reality fracture, Commander deck, Multifords, 103 00:09:06,600 --> 00:09:09,800 Multiverse reforged 104 00:09:09,800 --> 00:09:14,600 Maniple volume went from 108 units to 164 105 00:09:14,600 --> 00:09:18,600 While TCG players copy have to 757 106 00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:22,200 Both venues cleared within a dollar 50 of each other 107 00:09:22,200 --> 00:09:26,200 Same deck, same price, opposite direction on volume 108 00:09:28,600 --> 00:09:31,400 One piece of news because it touches every box on this tape 109 00:09:31,400 --> 00:09:35,800 On October 5th, Wizard said that starting with Nauticus 110 00:09:35,800 --> 00:09:37,800 That the first set of 2020 7 111 00:09:37,800 --> 00:09:41,800 Play boosters become booster packs with no guaranteed foil 112 00:09:41,800 --> 00:09:45,800 Collector boosters lose three foil commons and uncommons 113 00:09:45,800 --> 00:09:51,800 And Godpacks show up in 1,000 booster packs and 1,300 collector boosters 114 00:09:51,800 --> 00:09:53,800 Prices don't change 115 00:09:53,800 --> 00:09:58,200 Which means every 2026 collector booster box you're looking at right now 116 00:09:58,200 --> 00:10:01,000 Is the last of the current configuration 117 00:10:01,000 --> 00:10:04,600 I don't know yet what the market does with that 118 00:10:04,600 --> 00:10:09,800 I'd watch the reality fracture and star track collector tiers for the answer 119 00:10:09,800 --> 00:10:15,800 What I'm watching reality fracture week 3 120 00:10:15,800 --> 00:10:21,000 Does the collector display hold a 36% premium on a flat 121 00:10:21,000 --> 00:10:27,800 260 box shelf or does that 410 low asking price 122 00:10:27,800 --> 00:10:29,400 Become the clearing price 123 00:10:29,400 --> 00:10:35,800 Does the bundles triple shelf push the price under the 58 dollar sticker 124 00:10:35,800 --> 00:10:41,000 And the reality fracture secret layer bundle into the October 23rd 125 00:10:41,000 --> 00:10:47,400 Does the 62 units seller get undercut in how far it is 90 dollars 126 00:10:47,400 --> 00:10:53,800 I'm sorry how far toward 90 dollars does it slide when release stock lands 127 00:10:55,800 --> 00:10:59,400 Hasbro Q3 earnings Tuesday October 20th 128 00:10:59,400 --> 00:11:02,200 8 30 a.m. Eastern 129 00:11:02,200 --> 00:11:05,400 Watson growth against a mid single digit guide 130 00:11:05,400 --> 00:11:13,400 Consumer products in inventory into Q4 and whether the 5 to 7% full year guide moves 131 00:11:13,400 --> 00:11:16,200 You'll get to take the morning of the call 132 00:11:16,200 --> 00:11:24,600 That's it. That's the week a flight collector shelf a triple bundle shelf and one seller with 133 00:11:25,000 --> 00:11:27,400 217 star track boxes 134 00:11:27,400 --> 00:11:31,900 Full article and numbers and graphs on empty G sold calm 135 00:11:31,900 --> 00:11:34,600 See you next time 136 00:11:35,400 --> 00:11:37,400 You 137 00:11:37,800 --> 00:11:39,800 You 138 00:11:39,800 --> 00:11:41,800 You 139 00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:44,200 You 140 00:11:45,000 --> 00:11:47,000 You 141 00:11:47,000 --> 00:11:49,580 (upbeat music)