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You're listening to the MTG sold weekly podcast. This is the week of September 28th through October 4th,

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2026

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Reality fracture came out Friday

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Foundation's commander came out with it and I spent most of the week annoyed at one sentence wizards wrote in September

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Let me explain

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The sentence was that playbooster availability may be tighter in North America through release

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You heard me read it two weeks in a row. I planned around it. I figured Friday would be a thin shelf a

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Climbing price and a segment about scarcity

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Instead the playboost display shelf on TG player grew 57%

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Sellers went from 23 to 43

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In price felt 13% to about 150. That's the opposite of tighter. That's a parking lot

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And the part I keep turning over is that the sell-through went up anyway from a solid sell-through ratio of 5.8 to

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6.1 on

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2020 boxes the shelf got bigger and still turned over six times in seven days

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That's the highest turnover we've recorded for anything and it happened in the week. I was told to expect a shortage

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So I'm done with that sentence supply arrived and demand eight it price down while volume goes up is

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Sellers racing each other to the floor as product lands and you've got the benefit

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$150 is about 9% under what 30 packs cost at the sticker price on the WPN page

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Which works to about 165 dollars? You can buy the sealed box for less than the packs inside it

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I don't really know what the food can fully do with that. I've read it four times

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The collector's side went the same direction but kept more of its premium

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Again, reality fracture the collector's display went for about $570 to about $480 down 15.5% on

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666 boxes nearly double the week before two weeks ago it sat 76%

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Over the pack equivalent sticker now. It's 49

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So half the collector premium is gone and the other half is the only piece of September's pre-order price still standing

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My read on why collector held and play didn't collector is the allocation WPN still list as parts of delayed

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So some of that 49% is scarcity and has it resolved either that or the collector buyers is reprized slower than the play crowd does

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Another indicator is a delayed Amazon orders. I'd want a week or two before I pick

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One more thing here because it's the closest thing this hobby has to affect

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Manipul clear the same collector display at $480 on 89 boxes

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Within three dollars with TCG player

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Two marketplaces different sellers same week same number when that happens you can stop arguing what the box is worth

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Reality fracture took 61% of TCG player revenue up from 50 release day alone did

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2811 units and about 337,000

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The week was just over 1.3 million up 8%

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Now foundations commander, which is the funniest thing that happened this week five decks same release day

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Same $30 sticker on every box and they went in opposite directions so cleanly it looks staged

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Triple source Rex went up 19% to about $53 with the shelf cut in half and a sell through a 4.4

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Last week I asked whether Rex keeps its operation when release supply lands it didn't keep it it widened it

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King engineering is the top declineer of the foundations commander decks in the entire market down 34% to

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26 dollars that's under MSRP on day one it got marked down before anyone owned it

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Sellers up 75% units from 30 to 177

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I don't know why this delights me so much, but I will remember keen engineering at

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26 dollars for a long time

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The other three decks did two to three times their prior volume all at markdowns

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So the market looked at five boxes with the same sticker and decided on Friday that one of them is a deck and four of them are volume

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My best guess at the mechanism stores got allocated all five priced four of them to move and the market pays for Rex singles

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either that or

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Rex buyer showed up specifically and the other four just got the leftover shelf

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If you're holding any of the four you're holding volume product with sellers still arriving if you're holding Rex the shelf under you

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have and the price followed the cards

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Lord of the rings where I have to eat something

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Last week I drew a line for you if the set booster seller count climbs past 50 more product is coming

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I said that I love the count went from 49 to 64 listings up 27% price down

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200% to 305 and sell through under

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Positive one for the first time since the first restock and

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Maniple listings on the same box went from 51 to 92

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So I drew a line and the market stepped over it and I'm obligated to tell you wave two is here

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What I can't tell you is where it's from no reprint no distributor note no liquidation story

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My best guess is a second allotment reaching the same sellers who got the first one either that or one large holder is

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Spreading inventory costs marketplaces at once which looks identical from where I sit

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Keep an eye on the seller count if it drops back under 50 and the price gets back over 320

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Wave two absorb like wave one did if it keeps climbing and 300 breaks. This is more than a slug

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Two things I'm not gonna spend a segment on because they don't deserve one the reality fracture pre release pack fell another 14%

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It's about 36 dollars

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And sold more at higher sell through

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Let the overkits getting listed after the events meaning people who want six packs for under 40 bucks

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Let's bring it to the whole story and the hobbit lost 39% of its revenue in a week without its collector display moving price

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Still about 710 dollars

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Bires walked into the new set and the hobbit didn't follow them

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Honestly, the most dignified thing a product line has done all month

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One more thing and it isn't a box

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Hasbro reports third quarter earnings on October 20th a 30

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Second quarter was the first five hundred million dollar magic quarter

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545 million of 32% and it carried operating profit for the whole company

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Then management guided third quarter wizards growth to mid single digits and a fourth quarter decline they set the bar on the floor

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Analyst consensus is about one point nine dollars a share on roughly one point five billion in revenue

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The drag is the toy side the march cyber incident cost about

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25 million dollars

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tariffs are the input costs going to the holiday build and digital spend is getting cut about 25% by

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2028

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What I'm watching is whether wizards clears a bar they lowered themselves and whether the 40 to 45% operating margin holds

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Our tape says the quarter closed with the biggest TCG player week we've seen in a month

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The call tells you whether sell-in matched it

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I'll have full take the morning of

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So what to watch

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Does the playbooster display stay under pack equivalent MSRP once Friday surge normalizes this reality fracture or does it bounce when sellers stand out

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Does collector hold 49% to the four markdown foundation decks find a floor under wrecks and

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The Lord of the Ring seller count, which is the whole Lord of the Ring story right now

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That's the week if you bought reality fraction on Friday at release prices you did it right if you bought in September

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You paid for delay that most of it didn't happen

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That's it full numbers and data's in graphs in the article on mjd sold dot com

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See you later